Loaded post-Holiday Monday for Media and Markets.

Traders are back in their seats Monday with an upbeat jobs report behind them and Treasuries pushing the magical 4% yield number. All this on a day where the Duke Blue Devils face off against the Butler Bulldogs for College Basketball's biggest prize, Tiger Woods has his first real press conference as Master's week begins and the Baseball Season begins with with the fiercest rivalry in the MLB, last night's opener of Yankees-Red Sox.

Gains in payrolls for the month of March of 162,000 signaled the biggest job increase in multiple years and certainly the most optimistic look for an economy devastated by millions of job losses in the 2 years. Yes, the Government sponsored Census had a part to play, as by some reports, the number of temporary workers hired has been reported near 48,000, but the underlying trend is much improved. The numbers from January and February were revised much higher also, with January turning a 26,000 job loss into a 14,000 job gain and February reducing its loss to only 14,000 from a previous estimate of 36,000.

On this positive data US Treasury yields for the 10-year flirted with the 4% mark. The first time in 10 months that this has happened. Another area creating highs was Energy, as Crude Oil prices pushed to 18-month highs of $86 a barrel.

Investors have a lot to look forward to today not market related, as sports and news take center stage. Opening day of the baseball season is sure to grab some attention away from Bloomberg terminals this afternoon as is Tiger's first full press conference since announcing he returns to play in the Masters. His first Golf Tournament since the infamous car accident and continued fall-out from his grandiose sex scandal. All the while, sports fans across the United States prepare for this year's College Basketball National Championship game tonight between the Blue Devils of Duke and the Bulldogs of Butler in Indianapolis, IN.

Morning trade halts stock rally

100 points off for the Dow before lunch as markets in North America prepare for National Holidays. Canadian Markets close tomorrow for Canada Day while Americans prepare for the 4th of July weekend leaving markets in trading flux for the week. Today's decline was pushed in part by a lower reading of consumer confidence for the month of June. May highs in consumer confidence retreated partly in June, putting some traders on edge over the supposed recoveries in consumer spending expected this summer.

The world media has seen its share of tragedy this past week with the deaths of Ed McMahon, Farrah Fawcett and the King of Pop Michael Jackson. The 'Thriller' singer's death has overshadowed many noteworthy market moments of the past few days due to the sheer global reach of Jackson's fame. The legacy of this great singer, and polarizing personality, will be up to debate seemingly forever.

At the top of the market pages was the sentencing of Bernie Madoff, responsible for the biggest individual Investment Fraud of all time, now getting his just due, with a sentence of 150 years in prison and the forfeiture of virtually all his related assets.

Other noteworthy market swings included a further decline of housing prices and a drop in Oil. Housing prices tumbled 18% year over year, as well as 0.6% month over month in April and Oil retreated back below $70, settling around $69 a barrel.

Markets start hot after Gustav potential negated, gains can't hold

Hurricane Gustav came and went through the US Gulf region without anywhere near the devastation of Katrina three years ago. On this news, commodities fell, led of course by oil, dropping around $7 in the early going, before oil settled at around $110 a barrel.

The Dow led the majors with a morning gain of over 200 points (1.7%), followed closely behind by Nasdaq and the S&P. Sector-wise the morning rally was broad, except of course for Energy and Materials. Energy as a sector was down almost 5% at the end of the day.

A fall in the Supply Management Manufacturing index to 49.9, which below 50 means contraction, added to the skittish nature of nervous trading on the day. From the morning highs, the downslope of the US majors (Dow, Nasdaq and S&P) mirrored one another leading to a day filled with red quote boards. The Dow finished down 26 points, the Nasdaq down 18 and the S&P down 5.

Oil continues slide, Markets up Monday

The Bulls on Wall Street pulled ahead once again as the slide in Oil Prices continue due to weakening demand. It is becoming clearer week after week that the Auto Makers, especially in the US, are in serious trouble; leased vehicles can not be resold, Trucks are sitting in lots, and drivers just aren't driving much.

The slowdown in Auto Sales, coupled with American's resistance to drive during times of high gasoline prices have lowered US oil demand to a point where Oil Trade speculators are feeling their bid up prices fall quickly and feverishly. Oil dropped into the $113s today pushing stocks up through the middle of the trading day. Not even the conflict between Russia and Georgia is stopping Oil's slide. The Russian invasion is likely not a threat to turn around Oil Prices in the short term as the pipeline, which funnels oil through Europe and Asia is too lucrative to become a target as this conflict grows militant and becomes a traditional war.

Hence, the 3 main US market trackers have trended higher since the open with the Dow standing at +96 points, the Nasdaq at +41 points, and the S&P at +15 points.

American Markets Rally on Oil Price Drop

Fears of a late storm season abated earlier this week and that, coupled with statements by the Federal Reserve, sent Oil Prices responding in kind; dropping to 3 month lows under $120/barrel. Markets jumped significantly on Oil's retreat, and the confirmation that Interest Rates will for the time being stay where they are.

For the Fed, inflationary risks are weighing heavily, and pricing pressure is "significant". The reaction for now is to wait and see, by holding rates, as the economy is expected to stay weak in the United States for several additional months.

The Dow Jones jumped 330 points (a gain of 3%), while the Nasdaq rose 64 points (a gain of 2.8%).

Up and Down Wednesday for The Street

American markets saw both ends of the spectrum on Wednesday as a flurry of economic data and commentary were on Trader minds. Oil Inventory data was out for morning trading and the fall of inventory by 4.8Million barrels seemed to initially lead the markets higher. Tech was in the drivers seat for most the day as the Nasdaq finished higher by almost 1%.

But by mid-day the party was over and the Financials and Energy led the decline. Oil prices continued to sell-off with Crude prices fell to $122/barrel. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke with some conviction about the Fed's view on inflation, and in the world of rising food prices and high oil there should be no surprise inflation is on the mind of the Federal Reserve.

Traders sold off heavily in the early afternoon after digesting the economy data and commentary leading the Dow Jones average from a gain of 100 points to a 50 point decline before ending the data just about at the flat line (.1% lower).

For the financials, this stance of 'inflationary concerns' doesn't bode well as traders were already exhibiting some heavy selling pressure on the sector. With the latest round of earnings coming from the sector and several executive shuffles (see Wachovia (WB)) there doesn't seem to be much optimism on the Street for a financial turnaround in the near term.

With Americans on Holiday staying home, Canadian markets post slight gain

The Memorial Day Weekend had many Americans staying home or staying local due to high gas prices. While Markets in the US were closed Monday, there was plenty to do this long weekend, with the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs starting and the NBA Conference Finals in full swing.

It has been reported (Link) that Americans are driving at historic lows, and who can anyone really blame them with $130 Oil and gas prices over $4/gallon. Perhaps some of those long weekend trips were cancelled and instead nights were spent enjoying the latest antics of Indiana Jones. The Paramount film, a subsidiary of Viacom Inc. (VIA), enjoyed a, not record-breaking but still, highly successful opening for the film, with a 5 day domestic gross of $150Million and a worldwide take approaching $300Million.

Canadian markets were up slightly on Monday, with the benchmark TSX index gaining 35 points, or a quarter of 1 percent.

Late Session Recovery helps Stocks End Flat

After another lackluster trading session, following Friday's overwhelming bearish day, stocks held up in the afternoon and rallied to finish mainly flat. The Dow Jones finished the day own 7 points while the Nasdaq was down 12.

Technology and Financials were the biggest sectors in the red as Oil surged towards a $104/barrel record. Oil closed at around $102, a couple dollars off of the high. More economic metrics were on tap for today as well, most notably US Manufacturing Activity (48.3 vs 48.1 expected). This indicated a lesser contraction than the market expected but not enough to woo anyone in the Trader's seat that we're through this economic slowing period.

Of note in the world of the WC Power Tech Fund Investment Blog; Tomorrow a post comes from a guest contributor with regards to Small-cap and Micro-cap Investing.

Markets Continue Slide. Economic Worries Standout in Dow's 300 Point Loss

Slowing US Economics have pushed sellers to the forefront this entire week, and today's 300 point Dow tumble was another straw in the year to date tumbling market house. S&P stands down 9% year to date, while the Nasdaq is off 11%.

The Nasdaq was hit hard this week as technology sold off on those very same economic fears. The winners heading into the tail end of 2007 were those being bid up to ever higher 52-week and all-time highs and soon of these companies are feeling the financial fallout as their P/E ratios get slashed worst than Real Estate on Elm St.

It didn't help this week that Intel (INTC) missed numbers, by a couple cents, and came in on the low end of revenue guidance, even though business is just fine (Revenue guidance of up to $10Billion for next quarter versus the estimated $10.1Billion). The stock took a 12% hit that day, putting it under $20/share.

Apple's (AAPL) marquee event MacWorld, was deemed a failure this year as everything announced was expected and it included nothing as revolutionary as last year's iPhone. A Router/Storage hub, an iTunes movie rental service, new iPhone software and the new thin laptop that has been criticized by many as not hitting any particular market. Only time will tell whether the super thin Mac Book Air will sell decently well at its $1800 price point. Sony (SNE) has their ultra-thin laptop line well over the $2000 price point for years. Apple shares have fallen from their $202 record and now sit just over the $160 mark, with expected quarterly blow-out earnings numbers coming next week. A troubling fall for a company built on Steve Jobs hype, which now has analysts falling over themselves reiterating its cheapness/value opportunity.

These are troubling economic times nonetheless, as investors look for safer havens, seeing their financial, consumer and technology faithful stocks being sold off in great numbers.
The Googles (GOOG), Baidus (BIDU) and Amazons (AMZN) are all down significantly as the high P/E ratio game of Internet companies is shrinking due to recessionary economic factors and fears. The banks are steeped in mortgage losses and more potential dividend cuts are luring Investors away. Even hot commodities of late like Oil and Gold have cooled quickly and abruptly by the sell triggers.

All eyes now shift to the Federal Reserve and Chairman Ben Bernanke. Traders expect at least a .5% Interest Rate cut at the next meeting, and Bernanke has pledged the Fed will be aggressive in trying to fend off recession. We'll see at the end of the month how it all plays out, but till then expect the same volatility and uneasiness when choosing the right things to buy, or in fact short sell.

Disclosure: Author owns AAPL, GOOG

$100 Oil!

Well its finally happened, Oil breached the triple digital per barrel threshold. It was bound to happen with the supply numbers being dimished rapidly and all the civil unrest in the oil producing nations around the world.

Oil eased a bit from record levels but still managed a record close above $99.
Going into the Spring its anticipated that oil will retreat from these lofty levels, but from a technical trading standpoint Oil is still headed slightly higher, the psychological level of $100 is firmly being pushed on the commodities front.

There's a trade possible here and I would specifically like the drillers, such as Transocean (RIG), whose offshore operational rigs are plentiful and amongst the best in the business, and the company just got another endorsement from the famous Jim Cramer. While RIG has indeed doubled over the course of a year the important earnings metrics havn't yet flown off the handle. So there is still some room there to expand future P/E metrics. But as energy and oil related stocks breach further and further highs it'll take rationality to not get caught up in the expected seasonal fall.

Disclosure: Author does not own RIG

Markets Advance ahead of Fed Meeting, Oil hits New Record

Overall trading tones were positive on Monday and stocks advanced on both sides of the North American border. Canada's TSX advanced almost 1% while Major American indices were up about half a percent. Oil prices continued to climb near $94 a barrel.

Markets are almost already fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve as American currency slided lower again. The US Dollar is facing tremendous pressures as global economies become stronger and the anticipation of a rate cut further drives the benchmark currency lower. The strong Euro is worth almost $1.45 US and the strong Canadian economy is pushing the Canadian Dollar further past parity and is now worth about $1.05 US. Multi-national US firms are reaping the benefits every quarterly earnings report that the US Dollar slides while International Investors in US companies are feeling the pinch as their holdings absorb the conversion rate loses.

While a rate cut is what the market expects, there has to be a balance here and the Fed knows it. Economy stability and Inflation/Currency issues have to be at the forefront of the Fed policy discussions, as I'm sure they will be. The last time the Fed met and cut rates the market on the whole rallied and this party, with few hiccups, has continued into late October. The market expects more now and a stand by the Fed will likely be met by selling so a cautious stance will be taken by traders in the days leading up to an announcement.

Major financials are holding seemingly steady now awaiting the Fed but the solid Investment Banks are seeing Money flow back in. Goldman Sachs (GS) hit a new high today over $244/share, and Lehman Brothers (LEH) advanced also, both stocks showing gains of over 3%.

Oil continued its upward trek hitting near $94 a barrel. An incredible run so far that has seemingly been pushed by fear of conflicts or worldwide production slowdowns every other week. Even with a milder Fall, than historically seen, in most regions, Oil prices continue to remain high pushing the likes of Exxon Mobil (XOM) closer to new highs.

$80 Oil and the Effect on the Marketplace, Time to Book Profits but Still Watch Energy Stocks

Price stabilization; the new key buzz word coming out of investment circles around oil futures. Consumers want it, oil companies probably not so much. Record breaking profits have become the norm at Exxon Mobil (XOM) but the average consumer will continue to feel the pinch at the pump.

OPEC, the world's oil production oversight organization, instilled an increase in production of 500,000 barrels per day in order to achieve some form of price stabilization. The fear of a sharp decline in oil stock piles has led to a continued surge in prices. Oil prices broke through a record barrier today and closed above $80.

Exxon, the largest of the "big-oil", rose another 1% to close at $88.62. Still $5 off its all time high, hinting that momentum and the market theory of "$80/share leads to $100/share" could be in full effect. Exxon stays shy of a half a trillion in market cap and with oil at these levels you have to wonder whether its just a matter of time before the company crosses that barrier. The one wild card is the Fed meeting on September 18th which could put a wrench into the spokes of this mini-recovery rally.

On the Canadian side of oil related news; Encana (TSE:ECA), Petro Canada (TSE:PCA) and Canadian Oil Sands Trust (TSE:COS.UN) are climbing back towards 52-week highs. Still a few dollars left to go for ECA and PCA but if supply fears continue to press on the market these companies will be breaking barriers left and right. They are the two prominent Gas and Oil companies the TSX has to offer. Canadian Natural Resources (TSE:CNQ) is eyeing its $78/share high after a 2.5% up day. CNQ has come far from its January lows of $53/share and as with, most of the Energy Sector in Canada it would be a great time to book some profits. For CNQ, the Alberta based oil and gas exploration play, I would like to see another pull back to the low 70s, high 60s before buying up more. This company has its headquarters in the sweet spot in Alberta's oil industry and has raised output guidance in its latest report. The anticipation of sustained greater output coupled with the rising commodity environment have spearheaded CNQ's run to its highs.

Buying into Oil at these levels I think is risky, as psychological record levels of $80 a barrel are broken. I would expect a slight pull-back in Oil prices from these levels as price stabilization comes into effect providing more workable supply numbers for the coming months. While some predict oil to reach $100 sooner rather than later, my stance would be that oil will sustain itself close to, but lower, than these records levels throughout the upcoming winter months.

Disclosure: Author is long CNQ

Market Musings: Oil Records, Interest Rate Uncertainty put Market on Edge

As North American Markets rallied today oil prices soared towards record highs on fears that OPEC would be unable to meet demand. Oil approached records of around $78/barrel as investors bought up these futures into the winter season, expecting diminished oil supply numbers from the US.

Before you run off to buy Exxon Mobil (XOM) or Chevron (CVX), it's important to note that these mega-oils already saw around 2% gains today and stand close to 52-week highs. OPEC, the world oil production policy maker announced that it would increase production by 500,000 barrels per day to help ease prices. The general fear of market uncertainty due to the US Credit situation is putting the world economy on notice and forcing policy making organizations to take steps to control pricing of various goods. The news of the production ramp sent oil futures back to the $77/barrel range.

The recent US jobs number came in drastically softer than expected as payrolls were actually cut. Analysts expected a drop in jobs but not a complete loss. This data however, carried forward the notion that the Fed must act on Interest Rates at its next meeting later in September.

I would be cautious up to this meeting because the market's resilient rally here is based on the fact that the Fed will in fact cut rates by .25 or .50%. This is a key decision for the Fed as it balances a seemingly US strong economy and a disaster situation with credit that threatens to spill over into all consumer segments. Investors need to be cautious through the next week and beyond as the markets seek to establish a direction while waiting for the Federal Reserve to make its policy announcement. With the market having priced in a 25 basis point rate cut (.25%) and now working to price in a cut of 50 basis points (.50%) investors need to understand the upcoming risks. If action by the Fed is limited it would spark a sell off that could see the Dow back into the high 12000s.

If the Fed provides further relief for the markets, come the September meeting, we could be off to the races for the annual Santa Rally starting as soon as October. Technology companies making those must-have items such as Apple's (AAPL) iPod & iPhone, Nintendo's (NTDOY) Wii and Sony's (SNE) PS3 stand the most to gain, as would Internet advertising giant Google (GOOG), and auction house pioneer Ebay (EBAY). High growth will be the name of the game for the end of the year provided the expected relief comes by way of Bernanke and the Federal Reserve.

Disclosure: Author is long APPL, GOOG and does not own any of the other companies mentioned.