Well that's a Chart! [Update]

The major Stock trackers in the United States had an interesting day, a blip of seismic proportions as the Dow Jones tumbled 1,000 points within an hour and managed to regain 2/3rds those losses by the end of the session.

The focus was squarely on Greece, as worries surrounding the bailout, and the next European Countries who are to be "victims" grew as Traders watched the protests taking place in Athens. Computer trading limits did the rest of the damage as stop-loss after stop-loss was blown through. In a period of major regulatory, financial and market uncertainty today became one of the most volatile and memorable.

Update: CNBC is now reporting that a trader error involving an order on Procter & Gamble (PG) could be responsible for the drastic plunge in the market. Reports indicate an order was marked mistakenly as billion instead of million.

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Technology leading market's rally, a pause ahead?

The 52 week high list looks like a who's who of dynamic companies, with the list being dominated by some of the best and brightest in Technology. The Nasdaq has outperformed its peers on a year to date basis and as several analysts predicted, it is the tech sector that is leading the rally.

The Nasdaq's Year to Date performance gains of 34% dwarfs the gains put up by the S&P (18%) and the Dow Jones (11%). Even looking at the gains since the lows of March, the Nasdaq and technology is still the driving story for the market. Nasdaq at 68% leads the gains of the S&P at 60% and the Dow Jones at 51%. Either way, the bull market rally since March, on the back of the idea of recovery, and finally improving GDP numbers has been broad and long. The Bulls have been on a 6 month celebratory train, but will it last and is Tech's run over?

Not quite, the road to recovery, while already swift due to massive government intervention, still has to play its course and incite a recovery in the job market. Unemployment in America is still rising, though not as quickly, towards the psychological 10% mark. If job creation instead of job losses show up in the remaining quarter of the year, market bulls will have more reason to bang their chests, and more importantly, put their wallet where their mouth is.

Secondly, the housing sector still needs to improve. Articles on the Huffington Post and other sources, are already touting that banks are going back to packaging risky loans, and many analysts are waiting for the other shoe to drop when it comes to commercial real estate. While some may scoff at the success rate of the White House loan modification program, the last estimates put the percentage of home owners helped with refinancing at 13-15%, the fact is there are some getting help. Housing starts were lower than expected most recently but this has been a metric that has consistently come in higher than expectations.

Now, about those 52 week high names. Well technology giants Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) dominate the list, while other techs such as Ebay (EBAY) show up, and even others such as IBM (IBM) and INTC (INTC) are just off those levels.

The prudent thing for the market to do and investors to do would be to take a breather after such a scorching rally of late, however, as market participants are keen to know, markets stay irrational for longer than expected.

Disclosure: Author owns AAPL, GOOG

Markets sink Monday on Economics as Politics rears its head

Well, the week that wasn't, was it fact followed swiftly by heavily directed market action. The bears came out Monday and sent stocks lower from the start of trading as the Dow has been hovering another the minus 200 point total all afternoon.

Weak economic signs triggered some of the sell-off, which was broad enough to come to stocks and commodities. A Home Builder survey citing a drop in confidence was partly to blame, as was a New York survey of a decline in factory activity, according to the Wall St. Journal. Oil also slid, falling back towards $70/barrel after spiking to the mid $70s last week.

With option expiration occurring at the end of this week, traders are looking at where lock-ins are likely to be. Lock-ins being the certain levels stocks regularly fluctuate and float towards during options expiration week. While several economists and general "experts" are throwing around the term "green shoots" these days, the market's rally since the March lows proved that stocks at attractive valuations can recover to fair value in almost no time at all, given even glimmers of prospective recovery. Many are hopeful for economic recovery by the end of this year, however the still rising unemployment is tempering optimism and political fighting between Republicans and Democrats on everything including the most trivial of issues does not invoke the confidence Americans need in their government at a time of broken-down micro and macro-economics climates.

The President and his administration are trying to fight battles on several fronts and it appears to be taking its toll. The financial situation, the automotive situation, housing, health care and education reform, and the stimulus package are only some of the bigger areas where President Obama and his team are entrenched for change, and involved in business more heavily than any world leader would want to be. Could an agenda push too broad for its own good be responsible for the latest setbacks in the stock markets as businesses see future profitability diminished by stricter rules and regulation?

Most investors, economists and traders know significant overhaul is needed, though many don't accept several sweeping changes at once. The bankruptcy in the American auto sector, leading to government ownership and European partnership for 2 of the big 3 has turned that industry on its head. The financial fallout of the credit crisis is still very much at the top of the heap of troubles in the United States, with the Treasury and the President rolling out new reforms and a plan of action for the financial sector which will undoubtedly bring about increased regulation, not likely to appease profit seeking investors. The health care issue, the latest on the President's seemingly worldwide tour of change, may bring prosperity to some, in the field of electronic medical records and cost-saving technology, but is sure to complicate business for the private insurers and medical practitioners who in the future see a potential competitor in the public sector.

An agenda this broad and this ambitious is always met with an incredible number of challenges, but the time may not only be right, but may in fact be perfect, allowing America to somewhat reset itself stronger and leaner, more productive and more profitable in the years to come. As the economy recovers and some banks pay back TARP money and some infrastructure projects begin in the summer across America and some medical institutions start saving costs, the up swell of goodwill can spread across the country and public perception will lead to spending, leading to profitability, and leading to stock market advances.

Stocks are taking a breather today, after a 40% rally its almost expected, but looking to the future, the Investor should not be afraid of an administration taking drastic steps, but should embrace the goal that all investors share. Prosperity

The Non-Week that was. Markets remain flat

Although financially, politically and economically a lot happens each and every week in this game, sometimes you wouldn't know it by looking through the stock pages. Both the Bulls and Bears are pushing for some direction but neither is making any headway.

The tally on the S&P for the week, barring a late Friday afternoon directional miracle: +0.6%!. The same for the Dow Jones, while the Nasdaq lags at a weekly loss of 0.3%.

As Options expiration nears at the end of next week, Traders will likely have more ammunition to find a direction. So as one of the more brilliant pieces of advertising these days dictates:
Stay thirsty, my friends.

Stock Climb continues, S&P above 900

Despite what should have been a corporate backlash against recently announced plans by President Obama to curb corporate Tax Havens and loopholes, markets brushed off worries with a shrug and kept pushing higher. This sent the Dow to the green by 200 points, while the S&P however was the big winner of the day, climbing higher by 3.3% to finish at 907.

The changing tax rules, which are estimated to bring in $210Billion in additional tax revenue over a decade, are in part a response to the growing easiness by which corporations shelter income with offshore holdings offices in countries with low to nil tax rates. By having these subsidiaries, overwhelmingly popular with Financial Institutions, which ironically are the same ones who have taken most of the $700Billion in TARP bailout money, companies can avoid paying taxes by shifting money around and through other countries. Considering a report from January pegged 83 out of the 100 biggest corporations having overseas "offices" in tax havens, the amount of money in lost tax revenue adds up.

The 2nd part of this change is driven by economics, as incentives are re-created in order to spark employment and investment in the domestic United States. Previous policies and tax incentives had been adopted to spark International Investment, however, the current unemployment situation in the US has made keeping Americans employed a top priority for the new Administration.

In other news, despite the tie up with Italian car maker Fiat, amongst other restructuring plans, Chrysler still anticipates losing nearly $5Billion in 2009, with a minute return to profitability by 2012.

Financials continued to rally again today, despite Fed Stress Test results that are likely to indicate several banks that need additional capital. Amongst those, it is being reported that Bank Of America (BAC) is looking to raise $10Billion in fresh equity capital. The stock today was up almost 20% compared to the Financial sector's gain of nearly 6%.

The summer movie season is getting started, and that means it is the time for the popcorn blockbuster. First up is a continuation of the X-Men franchise from 20th Century Fox, a studio owned by News Corp (NWS). The X-Men comics were created by Marvel Entertainment (MVL), and the first 3 films in the franchise has grossed over $600Million in domestic box office. X-Men Origins: Wolverine tells the origin story of the most famous mutant of the group and despite the sting of a piracy leak, which put an unfinished version of the film on the Internet a whole month before release, the film managed excellent $87Million domestic and $160Million Worldwide box office tallies. The popularity of the character is surely showing among movie fans and this will likely mean a continuation of other Marvel properties that Fox has the license too. Marvel itself also stands to benefit as its license fees are typically tied to box office receipts and up front payments.

So with the March and April rallies continuing to mount, is it time to take some profits? Since March lows, the S&P is up 220 points, or 32%, and with an economic situation just barely showing some glimpses a case can be made that the markets have gotten ahead of themselves. Taking some off the table would be a prudent thing to do for Investors, however any leg down or significant down day is an opportunity as valuations are still attractive and the S&P is just broken even for the year.

Disclosure: Author owns MVL, holds puts in BAC

Best Month since 1938, not an April Fools Joke

No Foolin'? That's right, the S&P has had the best month since 1938 in April, as Butch & Sundance so poignantly put it all those years ago in the classic film.  The bears have been watching from the sidelines in seems all month long as this Bull Market rally will try to continue into May.

CNBC has broken down some of the monthly statistics here (Link). Several promising signs have been had, especially a leadership earnings role by Technology and a renewed confidence in the banking sector, however a little heed should be taken as the same network touted the potential of Dow 10,000 in the summer.

As President Obama celebrated the 100 day milestone, its clear the American economy is in much better shape now, as opposed to the close of 2008, however it'll have to get much better much quicker than anticipated for the Dow to reach those milestones so soon.

With strategists and economists predicting almost uniformly now that the markets will not be retesting early March lows you can see why Traders are climbing back into the buyers column. Technical, and more importantly, Psychological support has been built into a market that still is off about 35-40% from late 2007 highs. And that's no late April Fools joke.

Markets Rise despite GDP data

The GDP dropping by 6.1% versus a 6.3% drop last quarter, could be seen as an improvement, but more so, it continues to paint a tepid picture of the US economy. With economists expecting a drop of 4.6%, according to the Dow Jones Newswires, the realities are still fairly uninspiring.

No matter for the markets however, as the 100-day milestone of President Obama's term approaches, Investors are cautiously optimistic in the direction of the US economy. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P trackers were all higher Wednesday by about 2% in early trade showcasing some of that optimism. The rally was broad, but Financial and Energy stocks led throughout the morning. Despite calls from the Fed that several banks would require more capital based on the results of the now infamous "Stress Tests", banks have shrugged off the major concerns and have header higher.

Various sources have reported that Bank Of America (BAC) even plans to appeal, their stress test results, to the government in an effort to show it is capitalized well-enough and would not need to drastic dilute shareholders with a market offering. This despite, several bank CEOs, including BAC's Ken Lewis, being on the hot seat with their respective jobs.

The ambitious agenda that President Barack Obama began his administration with has polarized the nation in some respects but brought it closer together in others. Despite news networks dedicated to one side of the argument or the other, the Democrats in power have shown many specific plans and remarkable resolve, and as the 100 day celebration comes to be another Obama media spectacle, the investing community is buying in. But with economic data points showing little to no improvement just yet, time will tell when recovery will truly take hold.

Disclosure: Author holds no position in BAC

Rally Continues past April Fools

The 2nd of April, typically a let down day for pranksters has markets rising like the Sun in the East. North American markets had spent March on an absolute tear, had the Madness from the NCAAs spread to the trading floors or was there finally something to be optimistic about?

Well, first and foremost the G20 summit has economists, investors and the media talking, which is always a good thing, especially if what's being talked about is recovery. Not only recovery, but how to get there. The month of April has opened with positive market gains despite a jobs situation in America that if taken by the numbers seems as dire as ever. Jobless claims rose to about 670,000 in America at the end of March, as high a figure as has been seen since 1982, but the G20 leadership, and that leadership's commitment to economic strength going forward has investors optimistic.

The latest reports out of the G20 summit have leaders close to agreements on stricter financial rules, including the use of tax havens, and a planned influx of money to the International Monetary Fund in order to help fight the global recession. This total could reach upwards of $1Trillion based on the unveiling of the plan by Britain's Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

It isn't just the G20 that has been providing the spark of late. In the Auto Industry, one of the hardest hit by the curbing of consumer spending, Toyota (TM) showed a sales increase of 18% in March, compared to February of this year, which led of a Vice President at the company predicting that Toyota has seen and moved past the bottom in slumping car sales. Toyota is up 14% in the last two sessions.

Piracy, a long and hotly debated issue came to the forefront of the press yesterday as a major 20th Century Fox motion picture was leaked online a month before its theatrical release. X-Men Origins: Wolverine, which is a follow-up to the hugely successful X-Men franchise for Fox and its parent News Corp (NWS) and based on the characters created by Marvel Entertainment (MVL), was set to be a summer blockbuster and tent-pole film for the studio. An unfinished, but DVD quality version of the movie somehow found its way around the Internet for fans and commentators alike to have a look. How this plays out in the month ahead is guess-work but bad word of mouth amongst the core fan-base could spell trouble for Fox, which is coming off of an abysmal 2008 movie year.

The first weekend box office for comic book movies depends heavily on the core fan-base and intelligent marketing, but if the movie doesn't live up to expectations and the core fans get to see it in nearly completed fashion a month prior to release, the effects of piracy will be felt harder here than ever before in Hollywood. News Corp, being the giant conglomerate that it is, is unharmed for now as the stock has risen 7% today along with the broader market.

Today's continued bullish sentiment was broad, with seemingly all sectors moving higher. The Dow, which has broken 8000 this morning is joined by its American benchmark brethren with gains of nearly 4% as of this writing. Question is, should investors be cautious for when the Sun sets in the West in the weeks ahead?

Disclosure: Author owns MVL

Market Rally continues on Day 3 on Banking and Retail sectors

10 to 11% gains for the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow since the start of trading Tuesday as markets focused on positive news coming out of the banking and retail sectors. With the S&P up about 80 points (12%) since the 660s bottom, Traders must be wondering is it sustainable?

According to many in the banking community it just might be! Why? It's simple, profitability. After quarterly losses multiplying not contracting, increased write-downs and more government backed dollars, some of the biggest American banks by name have issued relatively strong operational statements. Citigroup (C) and Bank Of America (BAC), both of whom have seen share prices disintegrate before their very eyes over 15 months appear to have turned the tide of losses. Both companies have pre-announced profitability in the first two months of 2009 and both expect continued operations in the black.

What does that even mean? Well shares of both banks have rallied 70% and 90%, respectively, from most recent lows, and for taxpayers who now own a 36% stake in Citigroup, maybe there's a way out of that mess. But just a few days ago there was talk of Citigroup being replaced in the Dow Jones Index and its value as a "penny stock" weakening an already battered corporate reputation. Confidence in the banking sector, even the sliver that there is now, is crucial to returning people to the markets and jump-starting a cycle of economic expansion and price increases.

Can two months of operations at these banks be a real guiding light for the rest of year? It is of course premature to label the banks as stabilized and past their major losses, and in fact the market is full of Investors waiting for another shoe to drop, so market participants still need to exercise caution, for which quarterly results should provide additional clarity.

On the retail side, a sector that was labeled disastrous just weeks ago, has found itself well into newly renewed confidence after posting some surprising February numbers. Retail sales dropped 0.1% (up 0.7% excluding cars) over the month, which was better than the 0.4% expected by economists, assuring to some that some stabilization in this sector is occurring. This was on top of a revised January which saw an increase of 1.8% instead of the 1.0% estimate and following 5 months of Auto sales declines, January saw a slight uptick in that segment. Maybe its not as bad out there as every headline makes it out to be?

Who would think this market would be ripe for mergers and acquisitions? Roche (RHHBY) does, as it, after months of wheeling and dealing, finally found a friendly takeover number with Genentech (DNA) at $95 per share.

Markets, the economy and overall sentiment is still decidedly bearish which puts great scrutiny on any extended rally so expect some profit taking soon. At the very least, the S&P's ability to roar back past 700 is a psychological stabilizer for many traders, and given that there was talk very recently of the S&P earning multiples falling to the 5-8 range, in line with previous grave recessions, potentially pushing the index lower than 500, the 700 number is good to see. While there are no psychologists here, that is definitely reassuring.

Disclosure: Author owns C

Reaction to New Financial Bailout Plan and Stimulus Bill Passing bearish

Markets traded in negative waters in early morning trade, but it wasn't until details of Tim Geithner's plan for the remains of the Financial Bailout the things scampered quickly into the bear caves.  The Dow Jones finished lower by nearly 400 points (4.6%) and the S&P and Nasdaq followed with declines of 4.9% and 4.2%, respectively.

The Financial Bailout Plan, the new one of course, since the first $300Billion seems to have been vastly misplaced and mostly wasted, is one riddled with rules and regulations sure to make most on Wall Street unhappy with the prying eyes of Washington.  But maybe that's the point, because just maybe that's what is needed to restore both public and the private sector confidence.

Bank Bailout details have been written about in several news outlets today, including CNN (Link) but the overwhelming theme is better and deeper scrutiny.  In an economy where the public has little to no confidence in the health of their banking system it may be a necessary evil. Banks will undergo tests to determine how capitalized they are before, during and after they receive funds, and the Treasury will take positions in preferred shares of companies receiving these funds.

Certain conditions will have to be met by institutions receiving money, such as the provisions included to make sure Banks work with homeowners on the verge of foreclosure in an effort to keep people in homes by redrafting payment terms and a partnership with the private sector to purchase and cleanse bad assets from the books of infected financial institutions.

Luxury items are a big public sentiment play for the President and his administration.  Clearly the public doesn't want to hear headlines about executives making multi-million bonuses while banks cry for hand-me-down money.  So executive compensation and corporate luxury spending will be scrutinized and have to go through an approval process.

The whole point here it go get banks comfortable to lend again to individuals, small businesses and large corporations, with secondary objectives of keeping people in their homes if possible and restoring public outcry over excessive compensation packages.

Oh and of course the plan will likely cost far more than initially anticipated, with numbers being thrown around of near $1Trillion in provisions, but as President Barack Obama iterated in his press conference yesterday, the cost of doing nothing is that much graver.  Oh and this on the heels of the Senate approving an $830Billion Stimulus bill that will attempt to stem the rate of job losses and put men and women across America back to work on Infrastructure, Energy, Health Care and Technology projects.

The President of the United States has indeed inherited quite an economic mess and only time will tell if opening up the ever-deepening Federal Wallet will be the inflection point the country, and the world for that matter, needs to spark itself out of Recession.

The Markets have had their say today, and so far the sentiment is pessimistic.

Markets Rally on Stimulus Package Hopes

200 to the good for the Dow in mid day trading has equities on a continued Bull run as regularly rough unemployment metrics are being used by traders to cash in, in the hopes the dire data will bring the US government around to passing, and passing quickly a massive stimulus package aimed at helping America get off the economic doormat.

The United States, according to latest figures lost 598000 jobs in January, raising unemployment to 7.6%, the highest level in 16 years. Normally, this news would spur further doomsday economic chatter but with the proposed $800Billion plus stimulus bill on the table in American parliament the talk turns to anticipation that lawmakers will act swiftly on resolution.

All the majors in America (Nasdaq, Dow Jones and the S&P) were up around 2% at the time of writing.

Fed Keeps Rate near Nil, Markets in the Green

Markets rebounded today in anticipation of the Federal Reserve decision on Interest Rates. The benchmark rate was set in a range of 0% to 0.25% so there wasn't any further down it could go. It's not like the Fed will pay people to take money, will they?

Anticipation of the Fed was going toe-to-toe with headlines of President Obama urging swift action on a huge stimulus package for Americans to get a slowly degrading job market and teetering economy back on a track towards growth. Some of the key statements in the Fed decision were made regarding recovery and overall improvement to the liquidity of credit markets, which still after all these months have yet to really take off. As businesses cut more jobs, cut expectations and cut spending into 2009, the Fed expects a gradual recovery to start sometime in the latter part of the year.

The Fed also clarified that the expanding weakness in the overall economy would keep rates at these low levels for some time if little to no improvement was seen. While rates can't go any lower than 0% the Fed is expanding its arsenal of tools to provide a lift to the macroeconomics plaguing the United States. The Fed has raised its limits on how much banks can borrow directly from the Fed and it has been involved in the purchase of commercial paper from numerous corporations in order to apply liquidity in areas that desperately need it.

All these tools seem to be making a difference at least in the marketplace, if not yet economically. The Dow's green days have certainly outnumbered the red of late as buyers are starting to not only appreciate company valuations but also see a plan that will eventually lead to recovery being formulated by the Nation's new Government.

Only one truly giant hurdle remains! Turning this plan into reality, and that is by no means a trivial effort.

Markets find 3rd day in the green. Thrice a trend?

For Wall Street the last month has been a mixed bag somewhere between bearish disaster and depression era sell-off, so when some optimism floats in Traders are left to revel within themselves whether the terms "turnaround" or "dead-cat bounce" are most appropriate.

On the heels of some optimistic news, which the market has used to bid up stocks, the Dow finished in positive territory for the 3rd day. It began with President-elect Barack Obama naming members of his economic team, initially naming New York Federal Reserve head Timithy Geithner as Treasury Secretary. This followed a weekend of talks that led to the $300Billion-plus Government guarantee of Citigroup (C) assets, sending Citi shares up 60% yesterday, finally culiminating in a subdued, yet rebound worthy, day for the markets as a new Fed stimulus plan hit the news-wires.

The Technology-laden Nasdaq was the only major to finish in the red, down about half a percentage point capping its 2 day rally to 11%, while the Dow and S&P extended their gains to 12% and 14% respectively over the 3 day period. So are traders seeing thrice as a trend and these extended government backed plans as a sign of turnaround hope? That's the question of the hour, and if the "bleeds it leads" media is to be believed it could very well be. To be sure the major media outlets aren't producing nearly as many gloomy headlines as in the past, however the news story is still mixed to say the least.

The Associated Press (Link) reported American consumer spending fell to the worse levels in 28 years during October, which was even worse than expected and initially extimated (3.7% spending decline versus an expected of a 3.1% fall). GDP was also worse than economists expected (0.5% drop in GDP versus an expected 0.3% decline), however initial reports of consumer confidence metrics for November were on the rise after all-time lows in October.

This is a significantly better sign to everyday market participants, compared to the non-stop bearish headlines that flew across magazines and newspaper for most of October and early November. Now can this translate into a December Santaesque Rally? While opportunities are certainly there for gains on over-sold stocks, to say this is a Bullish trend yet remains to be seen.

But with Obama capturing headlines for plans, partners and policies on "recovery", the mindset of the everyday consumer/investor will begin to shift from profoundly bearish to slightly bullish, and that's where the opportunity will lie. Notice how there's no more American Auto Industry on the verge of failure headlines just like that?

Tuesday brings in Valuation Hunters, Stocks Rise 10%

The headlines were set to spook once again: "Consumer Confidence at all-time low" (CNN). "Home prices see record plunge" (Reuters). But the bargain and valuation hunters were out and about nonetheless. When Stocks get this cheap the big-time and small-time Investors stand up and take notice.

Aluminum maker Alcoa (AA) fell to its lowest P/E ratio ever-recorded and today observed value-investors jump in cautiously in early-morning trade but emphatically as the day moved forward. Alcoa gained almost 18% on the day as both the Dow and S&P gained a full 10 percentage points.

In other good news, Boeing (BA) Investors took a deep sigh of relief as the company struck a tentative deal with its Machinist workers. A strike that, at the worst possible time, plagued the company for weeks on top of economic-driven market sell-offs. Boeing shares recovered 15% on the day.

Wireless Carriers in North America had a particularly positive rebound trading session. Verizon (VZ), up 15%, jumped for the second straight session and AT&T (T), up 13%, followed closely as Investors are taking heed of Wireless growth prospects despite economic woes. Devices like Apple's (AAPL) iPhone and RIM's (RIM) Blackberry Bold and Storm models are creating value-propositions that customers are willing to engage in. As Apple announced their quarterly results last week, headlined by almost 7Million unit sales of iPhone 3G, Carriers around the world are now beginning to see a customer set willing to spend more on combined Voice and Data plans.

In Canada, Rogers Communications (RCI.B) announced its quarterly results, which of course were headlined by iPhone sales of over 250,000 units. The battered Canadian Wireless company stock rebounded 11% on the day.

Investors, analysts and the media in particular, like to beat the doom and gloom drum on bad days and the euphoric relief drum on good days, but for those observing and waiting on the sidelines it is easy to get caught into the hype. Companies still trade on fundamentals and valuations, and while attractive valuations are observed all over the market these days I'd be much more comfortable seeing sustained positive moves over a number of days, rather than a valuation-based up day that now prices in complete expectations of a further half-point Federal Reserve Interest Rate cut.

This market will need some more positive reinforcement, so until then, as great as it feels to be euphoric about stocks again, the euphoria will have to wait for now.

Disclosure: Author owns AAPL, T, RCI.B, BA

Global Market Fears Return Friday, Sell-Off Continues

Corporate Earnings results have trended towards the "not too bad" and "above lowered expectations" columns more times than not this quarter, however the expectations game and fears of a drastic 4th quarter slow down have stocks reeling worldwide. From Europe to Japan, the sentiment this morning was profoundly negative, causing a halt in Dow futures trading as contracts dropped significantly in the early-hours.

At the open, American markets led off with a 500 point drop in the Dow, and while some Traders have bought off the bottom the morning is still holding to about a 400 point decline, roughly 4.5%.

Major corporations have been forced to plan layoffs, amongst other cost-cutting ideas, to not only shore up business capital but to provide Wall Street investors with any-type of strategic plan to try to hold down sellers. More recently it was Yahoo (YHOO) and Goldman Sachs (GS) announcing a round of firings.

As all the headlines surrounding the markets paint the gloomiest of pictures, it should be a time to make the sideline Investor think of potential opportunities. But this is one of the types of attitudes that has not worked recently. The Dow continues its slide and has dropped to 10,000....9,500....9,000.. down to its current levels of 8300. As this credit and financial crisis has expanded, it's become abundantly clear that its effects have been and are worse than anyone in the economic field imagined. The fear of the typical market participant and consumer are at all-time highs. A feeling confirmed by action in metrics such as the Volatility Index.

As the US approaches the Federal Election, perhaps the hope of a change in policy will divert the economic fears enough to showcase a plan of action and a call for change. While Barack Obama continues to lead in most polls, running on a platform of change, John McCain still finds himself within striking distance as the race closes in on Election Day. Americans will determine on November 4th who will lead them away from these economic fears and into a future of change and prosperity.

The resolution of some uncertainty and a Call to Action from a newly elected President could be the catalyst the market needs going into the finale of a rough, tumble and volatile trading year.

Markets Rebound Monday on Government Plans for Financials

Rebound Day? Or the start of something market-wide? That was the question facing Traders Monday morning following a wild weekend where Finance heads of the G7 met and came together on ambitious plans to cure economic ills around the world.  European governments vowed to guarantee all inter-bank lending and the US Treasury announced its intentions of buying into healthy banks to shore up liquidity and get credit moving throughout the economy.

Coming off the worst week for the stock market in a lifetime, and a Friday which saw the Dow see-saw over 1000 points in a single day brought analysts out of the woodwork uttering "capitulation". The market term is the English equivalent to Gold for Bullish Traders as it signifies the end of the end.  In other words, capitulation days typically lead to a buying rally in the short term.

It seems to have all come together for buyers over the weekend with Europe's unified stance on the banking sector, including Germany, France and Spain coming together to pledge $1.3Trillion to guarantee loans between banks and to purchase stakes in Financial companies. This dramatic effort was seen as necessary to avoid the kind of Financial failure throughout Europe that was seen over the last months in the United States.  The unified commitment in Europe led to further plans coming from the US Treasury leaving Monday morning trading in an almost euphorically positive frame.

By no means is the situation going to correct itself in a day.  The credit situation is hitting businesses of all sizes, causing stagnation in the job market, stagnation in productivity and in-turn sales.  The steps by Governments around the world are the beginning, and as money precipitates through the system it will eventually come out of the system as new loans to businesses and individuals. Credit will loosen, productivity and job growth will turn back to the positive side of the spectrum. The big question is when the little guy sees the results?

Markets, always look forward and the positive signs are aplenty today, with the Dow up nearly 600 points, the Nasdaq up 120 points and the S&P up 60 points by the middle of the trading day.  It'll be important to see whether the Bearish tone of late doesn't overcome the early gains towards the end of the day.  If buying like this can be sustained on high volume Traders will see that as a big positive, signalling that last week's downturn was in fact the result of fear-mongering rather than trading to valuation.

With two and a half months left in the trading year, and plenty of Investors sitting still on the sidelines, is now the time to think about getting back into your favourite stocks on the cheap? Was Friday indeed that day of capitulation? Will the Government plans begin to take form and alleviate the credit problems suffering the nation in the short term? All valid questions that only the next few weeks will tell. However, seeing the signals today, it's clear more Traders are starting to lean towards 'Yes' across the board.

US House defeats Bailout Bill. Markets plunge.

The controversial $700Billion bailout plan being pushed into the House today was to be the tipping point for the US economy and financial markets. With optimism swirling on the weekend that agreements had been finally reached on the bill, the one thing left to do was the most important. Vote on it.

The vote they did, the elected House narrowly defeated the bill, sending markets into a selling frenzy by mid-day. As traders learned of the tallying votes against the bill, sellers rushed through the electronic order desks and buyers were heading for the exits. The Dow fell 700 points during the early afternoon while the Nasdaq led all decliners (off about 7% at the bottom of the session).

With politicians on both sides of the spectrum resonating the importance of the bailout package with regards to the fragile nature of the US economy, it is crucial lawmakers do something substantial soon. President George W. Bush urged for the passing of the bill, as did Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, but their pleas fell on a deaf House. Democrats did not get the overwhelming show of support they needed and Republicans held firm with their ideas and showed virtually little support even when implored by their President and House leaders. The final tally stood at about 60% of Democratics voting to pass the bill, along with about 30% of Republicans. Pitting the vote at 228 against, 205 for. Ending a tumultuous debating session in Washington that will surely leave politicians scrambling to draft a more "commonly-acceptable" solution soon.

The key is of course, that chances to rescue the financial system in America are few, and with another bank on the bubble, having to sell its banking assets, the focus has shifted from Bailout optimism to, who is next on the chopping block.

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) salvaged Washington Mutual in what became the biggest banking failure in US history, and today Citigroup (C) bought the banking assets of Wachovia (WB). Citigroup has insurance from the FDIC against Wachovia losses if they exceed $42Billion. A truly remarkable number, that will stretch Citi's already thin resources in the coming quarters. The company had to issue another set of preferred shares to the FDIC, as well as slash its own dividend down to $0.16/share.

As the day drew up a close the Dow continued to drift lower falling over 600 points just after 3pm. The Nasdaq continued to be the biggest decliner of over 160 points and the S&P followed suit down 90 points.

Markets continue slide as Jobs data weighs

North American markets continued to sell off in the beginning of the end of a week that has seen Politics at the forefront of American minds and Employment at the forefront of Wall Street. Today's news, not surprising in the least, continued the slide. America's unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in August as payrolls were cut yet again by businesses.

That marks the 8th straight month of job losses and a 5 year high rate of unemployment in the United States. August's numbers, and those of the previous months paint a fading picture for American workers. Job losses in August are estimated at 84,000, compared to economist projections of 75,000. Adding fuel to the fire, estimates for June and July were revised up to 100,000 and 60,000 in losses.

While talk of a "deteriorating economy" is flying through economic and investing circles, the emphasis continues to be on the Federal Reserve to keep Interest Rates steady and low for longer than the organization would probably like.

Off, another 100 points before the lunch bell even sounds, the Dow has run up its losses in this shortened Labor Day weekend to about 700 points (about 6% in the red for the week). The other majors were hit even harder with the Nasdaq off almost 200 points (around 8%) and the S&P off 80 points (6%).

While the economy continues to fizzle into the holiday season, businesses will have to do more to lure customers, putting the squeeze on margins. So far the Bears have had their way, and with no clear signs of turnaround Bulls have to pick their spots carefully.

Markets start hot after Gustav potential negated, gains can't hold

Hurricane Gustav came and went through the US Gulf region without anywhere near the devastation of Katrina three years ago. On this news, commodities fell, led of course by oil, dropping around $7 in the early going, before oil settled at around $110 a barrel.

The Dow led the majors with a morning gain of over 200 points (1.7%), followed closely behind by Nasdaq and the S&P. Sector-wise the morning rally was broad, except of course for Energy and Materials. Energy as a sector was down almost 5% at the end of the day.

A fall in the Supply Management Manufacturing index to 49.9, which below 50 means contraction, added to the skittish nature of nervous trading on the day. From the morning highs, the downslope of the US majors (Dow, Nasdaq and S&P) mirrored one another leading to a day filled with red quote boards. The Dow finished down 26 points, the Nasdaq down 18 and the S&P down 5.

Oil continues slide, Markets up Monday

The Bulls on Wall Street pulled ahead once again as the slide in Oil Prices continue due to weakening demand. It is becoming clearer week after week that the Auto Makers, especially in the US, are in serious trouble; leased vehicles can not be resold, Trucks are sitting in lots, and drivers just aren't driving much.

The slowdown in Auto Sales, coupled with American's resistance to drive during times of high gasoline prices have lowered US oil demand to a point where Oil Trade speculators are feeling their bid up prices fall quickly and feverishly. Oil dropped into the $113s today pushing stocks up through the middle of the trading day. Not even the conflict between Russia and Georgia is stopping Oil's slide. The Russian invasion is likely not a threat to turn around Oil Prices in the short term as the pipeline, which funnels oil through Europe and Asia is too lucrative to become a target as this conflict grows militant and becomes a traditional war.

Hence, the 3 main US market trackers have trended higher since the open with the Dow standing at +96 points, the Nasdaq at +41 points, and the S&P at +15 points.