Stocks Gain Early on Election Day

The moment of truth is here for Americans, as all over the nation blues and reds visit their polling stations to cast their ballot for the next 4 years of policy, control and decision making. While Democratica Senator Barack Obama continues to show a wide lead in National polls (almost 10 percentage points), Republican Senator John McCain is not giving up the fight just yet.

Stocks rallied this morning in anticipation of the election and what is represents as the closure of a long, stressful and attack-filled campaign. The richest political campaign in US history featured a little bit of everything including Senator Obama's half an hour television infomercial. Although the Republicans by all accounts have been badly outspent in this election they continue to move valiantly from city to city in battleground states in hopes of achieving a possible electorate number necessary for another 4 years in office.

Stocks gained ground on results from Mastercard (MA) as the world's second largest credit card company turned in an analyst-besting $2.37/share exclusing items, vs. the $2.25/share estimate. On the top line Revenue was $1.3Billion vs. the estimated $1.27Billion. Although seemingly every company reporting has a murky view of 2009, Investors are getting wise to the game and realizing that the kind of growth previously expected is just not viable in a down-trend given today's economic outlook. Mastercard was no different offering 2009 growth below their previous projections but by keeping expenses flat and under control MA was able to put a positive spin on next year. The stock rose nearly 11% in early trading.

What America needs and what the Stock Market needs is a decisive Presential victory so as to have the ability to set forth and push an agenda of economic and fiscal policy that will see growth return to the biggest market on the world stage. Judging by the National and State-wide polls, the electoral map and the market's advance, I would wager that the market will get its wish.

For investors, that wish needs to translate into a clear vision of recovery.

Disclosure: Author holds no position in MA

Global Market Fears Return Friday, Sell-Off Continues

Corporate Earnings results have trended towards the "not too bad" and "above lowered expectations" columns more times than not this quarter, however the expectations game and fears of a drastic 4th quarter slow down have stocks reeling worldwide. From Europe to Japan, the sentiment this morning was profoundly negative, causing a halt in Dow futures trading as contracts dropped significantly in the early-hours.

At the open, American markets led off with a 500 point drop in the Dow, and while some Traders have bought off the bottom the morning is still holding to about a 400 point decline, roughly 4.5%.

Major corporations have been forced to plan layoffs, amongst other cost-cutting ideas, to not only shore up business capital but to provide Wall Street investors with any-type of strategic plan to try to hold down sellers. More recently it was Yahoo (YHOO) and Goldman Sachs (GS) announcing a round of firings.

As all the headlines surrounding the markets paint the gloomiest of pictures, it should be a time to make the sideline Investor think of potential opportunities. But this is one of the types of attitudes that has not worked recently. The Dow continues its slide and has dropped to 10,000....9,500....9,000.. down to its current levels of 8300. As this credit and financial crisis has expanded, it's become abundantly clear that its effects have been and are worse than anyone in the economic field imagined. The fear of the typical market participant and consumer are at all-time highs. A feeling confirmed by action in metrics such as the Volatility Index.

As the US approaches the Federal Election, perhaps the hope of a change in policy will divert the economic fears enough to showcase a plan of action and a call for change. While Barack Obama continues to lead in most polls, running on a platform of change, John McCain still finds himself within striking distance as the race closes in on Election Day. Americans will determine on November 4th who will lead them away from these economic fears and into a future of change and prosperity.

The resolution of some uncertainty and a Call to Action from a newly elected President could be the catalyst the market needs going into the finale of a rough, tumble and volatile trading year.