05 October, 2007

Jobs Report puts Market in a Bullish Mood

The US Labor situation got a much needed boost last month as payrolls in September increased by 110,000. The Market feared dipping into a recession as the August report showed a decrease of 4000 jobs. This number was actually revised upwards to show a gain of 89,000 jobs. These macro-metrics put the markets in bullish territory early and the indices never looked back.

The Nasdaq led the way with a 1.7% gain and the Dow, S&P and Canadian TSX were all up between .7 and 1%. Canadian Technology power and BlackBerry maker Research In Motion (RIMM) led the way on the Canadian side as the company's strong earnings and guidance going forward lifted shares over 12%. The optimism surrounding the company and its popular line of electronics helped prop tech stocks for the entire trading session.

Investors go into the weekend on a high and as the Americans are back at it on Monday their Canadian counterparts get the day off to Celebrate the Thanksgiving Holiday.

04 October, 2007

WC Investing Q&A: Session I

Well its time to introduce something new to the WC Investment Blog. The best way to offer feedback I think is through Q&A Sessions. So here we are with the first one, of hopefully many more.

I've been fortunate enough to have generated a level of interest in my Investment Writings and because of this I've been asked a variety of questions on an amalgam of stock topics. So I thought instead of burying some of my responses in commentary and outside sources I would bring them to the forefront here, officially. Just so there's no confusion, this isn't a lightning round by any stretch, (I'm pretty sure Jim Cramer's got that trademarked) but I will try to keep responses relatively brief.

So let's get started.

1) Talked before about Diageo (DEO) as an Alcohol play, is there anything riskier and more obscure out there?

One company is Central European Distribution (CEDC) and what they do is distribution of, you guessed it, alcohol into and throughout Central Europe. They also produce and sell vodka throughout Poland and distribute an overwhelming number of other brands through the region. One year chart looks beautiful here and I first mentioned this play when shares ran from $18 to $39. I thought then part of the boat had sailed but the company is still worth a look. Forward P/E of 19-low-20s and a Price to Earnings Growth ratio estimate at about 1.40-1.5. If speculative plays in the alcohol space is the name of the game this is one of the only games in town.

2) Akamai and its upcoming Competition?

Akamai's (AKAM) a solid tech company. I like it and own Call options in it. It got really crushed when it reported its previous quarter numbers and now its earnings season again for this company. While it's had a pullback, I think AKAM remains stronger positions than its competitors in the Internet back-end bandwidth game. Major League Baseball is seeing a resurgence of traffic now as the playoff races finished up and the post season has begun and AKAM's sure to benefit. Limelight Networks (LLNW) seemed to be up and coming but it faltered heavily over the late summer months. There are concerns over margin contraction due to competition , but I still think AKAM it is the best company in this space.

3) VMWare IPO and beyond?

I talked about my thoughts on VMWare (VMW) and its IPO here (Link). I was weary of overpaying if VMWare jumped to $60 on its first day. I thought EMC (EMC) was the better play since they still hold 89% of VMWare all to themselves. VMWare has got it going though and as it breaks $90 and heads for $100 its even scarier. But the business that its in will be a big one in corporate circles and it is the only game in town right now when it comes to virtualization. On any pullbacks I would like to own it, but till then EMC still gives you great VMWare exposure with less risk.

4) How does Ebay go about increasing listings? And How is Ebay affected by Macroeconomics

Ebay's (EBAY) most important business is the core auctions business. They are seemingly the only one and as such have major control over pricing. Ebay was losing its core business to its own stores/Amazon's personal stores and other such merchants online. This was due to Ebay increasing prices too much. This drove down listings. When Ebay earlier this year reshuffled their pricing schemes it seems to regulate the business back and hence led to an increase in listings. So that's one way, a second is advertising. Ebay does a lot of it, but to further increase listings they need to do more. Ebay ran a pretty successful I think "It" campaign through TV and print ads but I havn't seen anything like that in quite a while from the company. Third, Ebay needs to further expand into more worldwide markets. They've made some strides in Europe but there's still a lot of room for growth there. The East markets are tougher for American companies to crack since they have traditionally had a hard time understanding the consumer and cooperating with regulations.

As for Ebay's macroeconomic issues, it like all technology stocks is susceptible to factors like inflation, interest rates, employment, consumer confidence etc. Interest rates, while not seemingly a factor in terms of core business for Ebay do have a big effect on general market trends. When the Fed cut rates earlier the market rallied in relief that the sub prime crisis could be further averted. Had rates not been cut Ebay would've tanked hard with the rest of the market. The employment issue is also a broad market issue, but Ebay feels the effects. Sellers of merchandise on Ebay will have a hard time getting rid of their things if the people who were just buying have suddenly lost jobs. The same goes for consumer confidence. People will only feel free to use their loose cash if they feel their economic situation warrants it. Hence they need to feel confident that they have enough to get by regardless of some casual spending.
The biggest issue for Ebay and other highly valued technology companies is that macroeconomic factors have a direct correlation to P/E ratios. When the economy is strong and macro-economic data points to growth and continued strength the leaders in the markets enjoy P/E premiums, so a company like Ebay can be valued fairly at 40-50 times trailing earnings. When these macro-economic indicators start to shift negatively and fears of a recession in the economy loom its very easy for those P/E premiums to contract sharply, and even though Ebay's growth could be consistent the company would trade at 25-30 times earnings rather than 40-50 times.

5) Altria and the Philip Morris International spin-off, what to do now?

I've liked Altria (MO) in the past and its done well. I liked it going into the run up to the Kraft split and now also before the PMI announcement was finalized.
I think PMI is much better to own as a pure smoking play that actually has some growth.
Smoking in North America is all but dead in the growth department. That's the main reason why I'd be hesitant with Altria. I do think owning it is a good idea for the PMI spin. I think people will jump into that when it becomes fully PMI. Only way to do that initially will be to own MO. I can see MO coming into the $75-77 range at the end of the year from its current $69 range.

6) Fund Holding Performance through the last quarter?

I'm working on something that should be up very soon.
I intend to publish the fund's largest holding, gainers, losers and trades that were closed during the September quarter.

03 October, 2007

Casino Stocks Fall Sharply on Macau Revenue Growth, Investors shouldn't be quick to jump ship

The Major Casino players have been on quite a run during the late summer months, seemingly hitting new highs daily. The front runners have been Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and MGM-Mirage (MGM) and the almost meteoric rise was substantially due to the expectations of growth in the sector in Far East regions like Macau.

Today's news has given major Casino players quite the haircut. LVS and WYNN, which are two of the biggest players in Macau were most hurt by the news that year over year Revenue growth for gambling in the region would be only 55%. Only 55%? That's it, ballgame over. Not so fast, but as with all things growth, and you better believe it Casinos are now growth oriented businesses, comes the gift and the curse that is expectations. The Morgan Stanley analyst who reported views of a softer than expected growth rate was expecting growth to top 75% year over year in the region. When you're talking about huge growth, and "miss" will lead to deflation and some investor panic.

Sometime though, growth numbers get thrown around in bunches ever so higher and it takes a session of humility to bring those valuations in check. I think we got that today and Macau, even at more realistic growth projections is still the real deal as the biggest gambling spot on the planet. So as LVS and WYNN drop 12% and 10% respectively, its time to appreciate the opportunity that has finally been given to own these companies. The casino operators will be a sustainable and substantial business going forward and as a long term investor owning a Casino has got to be right up there with owning a Stock Exchange, an Alcohol company, Food & Beverage, Diapers, Soap and Taxes (If you could invest in a piece of a good government!).

The last time I had to chance to speak about Casino stocks was almost 2 months ago ("Gambling on Gambling") and of the 5 companies I mentioned I thought MGM, LVS and WYNN were the only ways to consider playing, leaving Trump (TRMP) and Harrah's (HET) by the way side. My recommendation on a valuation and forward basis at that time was MGM simply because it was very well positioned in its growth prospects and had not received an outlandish P/E ratio that would bring about higher downside risks. When I wrote the article I said that LVS had been the Tortoise, WYNN was the Hare and MGM might just end up being the Lion.

Since the article here's how things have fared.
LVS: +52%
WYNN: +48%
MGM: +29%
HET: +3%
TRMP: -6%

Its clear that the Casino stocks have done very well of late, and I'd love to toot the horn but I missed the party too. I wrote about the stocks but didn't own a single one and while MGM has seen LVS and WYNN breeze past it in terms of gains I'm sticking with MGM as my Lion. The 10%+ haircuts to WYNN and LVS make them more attractive going forward but LVS has a P/E of 135 and forward P/E of 30, while MGM sits at P/E ratios of 30 after its 3% drop today. To me LVS has a lot more to sustain in order to continue rising and any hint of a slow down in growth, like today, will be met with much bigger waves by the market.
Then again sometimes you just gotta hit 16.

Disclosure: Author holds no position in any companies mentioned above at the time of writing

02 October, 2007

Yahoo's New Search Tool shows how far ahead Google is

Google (GOOG), the dominant player in search and search advertising, is seeing its competitors constantly nipping at its heels and it seemingly ignores them and continues to innovate. While Yahoo (YHOO), Microsoft (MSFT), and Interactive's Ask (IACI) are trying to revamp, recreate and reinvigorate the search experience in the hopes of gaining market share and hence more advertisers, Google is padding its lead and running away with first rate technology innovations.

Ask.com has some neat complete search functions and combines results of all types of media and even includes little previews, but it is still a minor player in the search game. Microsoft's failed MSN unit is still around and kicking and losing ever more money, while the revamped Live platform has yet to gain any traction and Microsoft is continually seeing search share losses. Microsoft even tried to lure searchers by offering them points in exchange for prizes when they did searches and even included games inside MSN Messenger that forced users to search for answers to questions. Sorry Softie, but that's not gonna win over the advertisers and not gonna get people to give up on Google altogether.

Yahoo's newest feature, billed as a Search "Innovation", while positive for the languishing company, signals just how far behind the company is on the technology spectrum. Yahoo was once the poster child for the future of the Internet and these days it seemingly can't catch a break as revenue growth is slowing, share prices are slipping and it loses portions of market share to Google every quarter. The new feature for Yahoo is "Search-Assist", which is a Search Suggestion/Completion tool that slides out when users type in a search keyword. As a user starts typing into the search box a list of common or relevant search terms comes up. Pretty cool huh! It is beneficial but looking behind the scenes I think tells a different story. Let's step back and see just what this says about Yahoo's tactics.

I think it showcases a desperation on Yahoo's part that it simply doesn't have the back end grunt to truly become a personalized search power house. A Power House that Google is slowing but surely building as it releases tools such as Web History, iGoogle and Personalized Search. All those quarters of increasing Capital Expenditures that analysts were frightened about are proving well worth their weight in gold as Google is able to completely change the search game again and again while its competitors struggle to keep up. Yahoo's search box suggestions come off as simply common or popular search terms, while all well and good, that's actually a step sideways and not forwards in the technological sense.

As the Internet expands and the plethora of information becomes exceedingly complex only YOU can determine exactly what YOU'RE looking for, not everybody else. Google's got you covered. A recent post on Google's official blog states (Link) that Yes its concerned about the huge privacy issues and its doing all it can but it also is working tremendously to tailor the Internet to each user.

"search algorithms that are designed to take your personal preferences into account, including the things you search for and the sites you visit, have better odds of delivering useful results for you. So if you’ve been checking out sites about the Louvre and you search for 'Paris', you’re more likely to get results about the French capital than the celebrity heiress" Additionally Google goes on to showcase that a search for Football in Chicago is completely different than a search for Football in London, England.

Google is taking localized and personalized search into realms that its competitors can only dream of getting to. This is all due to that massive technology spending to build out an infrastructure of computing that can handle incredible complexity when it comes to something that should be as simple as search. That is why Google gets a majority of search traffic, has higher click-through rates for its tailored advertisements, continues to grow rapidly and demands a market premium via a lofty valuation.

Yahoo, Microsoft and Ask right now are simply out of their league when it comes to search innovations. Google has the brains, with its thousands of dedicated creative employees, it has the brawn, with its incredible breadth of technology infrastructure, and it has bank roll to keep innovating in ever expanding new areas of not only Search Technology but all aspects of our daily Internet lives.

Disclosure: Author is long GOOG

01 October, 2007

Markets start October with a Bang as Dow hits All Time High

The rally continues in the wake of the Fed Rate Cut last month and stocks extended gains as the calendar changed from September to October. The Dow hit an all time intra-day high of 14,115 points as the index gained over 190 points. The Nasdaq followed suit with an almost 40 point gain and the S&P held up a 20 point gain. Canadian markets ended with about half the gains of its US counterparts as investors bought stocks across the board bidding the TSX up 100 points. The advance was broad and spanned every sector. Volume was also much heavier than the week prior as investors on the sidelines during the end of the quarter jumped back into the markets to fuel the rally.

Citigroup (C) drifted off its highs late but was up over 3% in the afternoon as it provided an optimistic outlook for the remainder of the year. The financial heavyweight announced that profit fell 60% due to loses in credit and mortgage securities totalled almost $6Billion. Guess the big bank guys weren't as smart of those Goldman Sachs (GS) traders who shorted such monstrous amounts of mortgage investments to cover up and make up hefty losses. Nonetheless investors were pleased as Citigroup told the markets they expect a calendar 4th quarter that would return things to the norm. Goldman gained another 3% to close at $223.

Nokia (NOK) also made headlines, and started the day well down, as it announced the purchase of Navteq (NVT), the navigation software company, for over $8Billion. Nokia shook off the early heavy drop before the market opened and managed to close the day in the green and even hit a 52-week high above $38/share. Nokia hopes to leverage Navteq's expertise in maps and navigation into its future lineup of mobile phones. The loser here apparently was Garmin (GRMN) as its shares fell 10% on investor speculation that it lost the bid for Navteq's service and now faces stiffer competition from Nokia.

New highs were aplenty in Tech stocks as Ebay (EBAY), Apple (AAPL), IBM (IBM), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Google (GOOG) all hit new marks, while Research In Motion (RIMM) and Amazon (AMZN) came oh so close. Google continued its sharp rise adding $15 and crossing the $580/share price mark for the first time in its young public history. As major techs get set to report earnings in the coming weeks it'll be increasing difficult to judge which of those companies are too inflated for their own growth prospects. But now, while the rally is in full swing, investors are coming back into play and buying Technology ahead of earnings and the seasonally strong holiday quarter.

Disclosure: Author is long AAPL, GOOG, GS, C