Internet Giants Falling on Guidance, Eyes Turn to Google

Earnings season for technology, especially growth technology stocks, such as the Internet sector, is typically very volatile as results speak in one language and guidance speaks another. Many companies offer guidance for future results in an effort to be more transparent to investors, but one poster-child of the Internet, Google (GOOG), does not.

The guidance game has hurt the big Internet players over the past weeks as Yahoo (YHOO), Ebay (EBAY) and now Amazon (AMZN) posted decent to good results but cut outlooks, or provided outlooks below Analyst expectations. In fact VMware (VMW) saw its valuation cut by 30% in the aftermath of its results and guidance. The growth game is a volatile one to be sure as with growth comes outsized Price-to-Earnings ratios which can contract quickly and violently when economic factors come to the forefront.

With the Federal Reserve doing all it can with Interest Rates and the Government passing through the House an economic package bill of about $150Billion it seems like the US can find its footing in the 2nd half of the year without slipping into no-growth economics. The big recession that Traders feared for months can be averted. Until then, every executive seems to be taking the cautious approach, which is making things uneasy for Investors.

Eyes will focus on Google next as the Internet giant reports its earnings after the bell today.
Analysts expect another stellar quarter with about 50% year over year growth. Google is notorious for not giving guidance and being very tight lipped about its future expectations and projects. With this company, traders only hear one voice and depending on which ear you're hearing with, that could be a good thing or a bad thing come Friday morning.

Disclosure: Author is long GOOG

What a Difference a Day Makes, Markets rebound Tuesday

Four Days of heavy sell-offs for North American Markets were met with enthusiastic buying as earnings, financial executive appearances and economic data supported a more bullish tone. Technology led the rise with the Nasdaq gaining more than 3.5% while the Dow Jones and S&P followed with gains of 2.5-3%.

Earnings from Wal-Mart (WMT) pushed stocks higher at the open as the benchmark retailer said it was expected a solid Christmas shopping season. Investors applauded the earnings beat and forecast and sent shares up more than 6%.

In the financial sector, a day after E*Trade Financial (ETFC) plunged 59%, a somewhat rebuttal to the bankruptcy fears from another analyst sent E*Trade soaring back 40%. A swing trader's dream stock the last couple of days, but the risks with this company still remain. E*Trade has assured it is well capitalized to absorb loan write-down losses and that bankruptcy is not in its future. In other financial circles, Bank Of America (BAC) reported that it will write down $3Billion more in losses, while Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO Lloyd Blankfein spoke at a conference showing the street once gain how brilliant the business and trading side of Goldman is. The context of Blankfein's talk; Goldman will not be taking any more write-downs and is still shorting Sub-Prime sectors. I for one think that Goldman's earnings will once again be stellar and prove to Investors it is not only Best of Breed on the Street but seemingly in its own Pantheon of Investment Banking. Shares of GS rallied heavily today, up almost 9% coming back to $233/share.

Technology was a big winner, as the Nasdaq paced gains, with Apple (AAPL) up 10%, Baidu (BIDU) up 13%, VMWare (VMW) up 13%, Google (GOOG) up 5% and Research In Motion (RIMM) up 9% all regaining some lost ground. I said very recently (Link) that Technology would be back and investors should look for strong fundamentals to find winners during the panic-stricken sub-prime selling crisis. Now by no means does today mean that all that can be forgotten and momentum will continue but it does provide a foundation for bullish sentiment.

There are several economic measures coming, including two key metrics this week; Producer Price Index - (PPI), and Consumer Price Index - (CPI), Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Now although the housing indicator released today showed a slight percentage gain, compared to the estimated percentage loss, the outlook pointed to things indeed getting worse from here on out before they get better for the home building sector.

Disclosure: Author owns GS, BAC, AAPL, GOOG

Markets End Week on a high, boosted by further Strong Earnings

Microsoft (MSFT) led the markets higher as its quarterly earnings surpassed estimates. The Dow finished up 1% and the Nasdaq almost 2%. Hope in the Financials was somewhat restored today also as Countrywide Financial (CFC) painted a hopeful picture for Mortgage recovery.

CFC, seemingly America's poster child for the credit crisis situation, rose over 30% as the company provided an outlook that signalled recovery. Investors met this with broad buying in many large and tailored financial names. The big banks, including Bank Of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C), after being pressured all week, recovered a few percentage points.

On the heels of the red hot IPO of VMWare (VMW), parent company EMC (EMC) reported a stellar quarter and outlook Thursday. Shares lifted EMC to new highs and Friday sent the stock to a record of close to $25/share. The company was hovering around $18-$19 when a small stake of VMWare went public recently, and subsequently more than doubled.

Investors will wait for the Fed Rate Decision to come in the week ahead but the hope instilled by CFC has to provide some foundation for recovery in the battered sub-prime sector. The start of a recovery for the big banks and trading houses should filter through as well. All eyes will be on the Fed in the trading days to come.

Markets Experience Sharp Selloff after hitting New Highs

Thursday began as another bullish day in the extended rally for the North American markets as the Dow Jones set record highs on sales guidance from mega-retailer WalMart (WMT). Technology also got off to a good start as earnings estimates and price targets were getting bumped higher virtually across the board.

Apple (AAPL) received two price target bumps this morning from analysts at Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs pushing shares to an all time high above $170. Similar highs were seen in momentum favourites Research In Motion (RIMM), Google (GOOG), Baidu (BIDU) and VMWare (VMW).

Just before 2pm in this afternoon's trading the markets were up over half a percentage point. It appears whispers travelled and the buyers dam broke and flooded into a massive sell-off. Within minutes the Nasdaq was in the red and major technology stocks saw their new highs evaporating. Cautious comments from JP Morgan regarding Chinese Internet portal Baidu's revenue for the upcoming quarter sparked slight profit taking which seemed to snowball throughout the technology sector. Further adding to the panic were comments made in Europe by European Central Bank Council member Axel Weber who insinuated that 1) the ECB may need to raise rates in order to keep inflation in check, and 2) that inflation should be priority number 1, not economic stability.

There was concern with the Federal Reserve's half point rate cut that the action signified a more worrisome approach to economic stability, rather than inflation. These comments out of Europe show that the ECB seems to be standing firmer towards the side of inflation concerns.

These comments seemed to rekindle trader fears of Inflation and pushed the selling further. A rally that was built around the Fed cutting rates by half a percentage point will certainly not hold up well if there's talk of a potential rate hike being needed to curb inflation. The sectors that have been gaining the most during the rally were the ones hit the hardest; Technology and Energy.

Investors should take heed that the indices were brought back after the drop, meaning that the Dow was able to hold and close above 14,000. If inflationary comments come further to light this could add tremendous volatility for the markets ahead, but investors should be concerned with specific company fundamentals, especially as the earnings season gets into high gear.

Disclosure: Author is long AAPL, GOOG

WC Investing Q&A: Session I

Well its time to introduce something new to the WC Investment Blog. The best way to offer feedback I think is through Q&A Sessions. So here we are with the first one, of hopefully many more.

I've been fortunate enough to have generated a level of interest in my Investment Writings and because of this I've been asked a variety of questions on an amalgam of stock topics. So I thought instead of burying some of my responses in commentary and outside sources I would bring them to the forefront here, officially. Just so there's no confusion, this isn't a lightning round by any stretch, (I'm pretty sure Jim Cramer's got that trademarked) but I will try to keep responses relatively brief.

So let's get started.

1) Talked before about Diageo (DEO) as an Alcohol play, is there anything riskier and more obscure out there?

One company is Central European Distribution (CEDC) and what they do is distribution of, you guessed it, alcohol into and throughout Central Europe. They also produce and sell vodka throughout Poland and distribute an overwhelming number of other brands through the region. One year chart looks beautiful here and I first mentioned this play when shares ran from $18 to $39. I thought then part of the boat had sailed but the company is still worth a look. Forward P/E of 19-low-20s and a Price to Earnings Growth ratio estimate at about 1.40-1.5. If speculative plays in the alcohol space is the name of the game this is one of the only games in town.

2) Akamai and its upcoming Competition?

Akamai's (AKAM) a solid tech company. I like it and own Call options in it. It got really crushed when it reported its previous quarter numbers and now its earnings season again for this company. While it's had a pullback, I think AKAM remains stronger positions than its competitors in the Internet back-end bandwidth game. Major League Baseball is seeing a resurgence of traffic now as the playoff races finished up and the post season has begun and AKAM's sure to benefit. Limelight Networks (LLNW) seemed to be up and coming but it faltered heavily over the late summer months. There are concerns over margin contraction due to competition , but I still think AKAM it is the best company in this space.

3) VMWare IPO and beyond?

I talked about my thoughts on VMWare (VMW) and its IPO here (Link). I was weary of overpaying if VMWare jumped to $60 on its first day. I thought EMC (EMC) was the better play since they still hold 89% of VMWare all to themselves. VMWare has got it going though and as it breaks $90 and heads for $100 its even scarier. But the business that its in will be a big one in corporate circles and it is the only game in town right now when it comes to virtualization. On any pullbacks I would like to own it, but till then EMC still gives you great VMWare exposure with less risk.

4) How does Ebay go about increasing listings? And How is Ebay affected by Macroeconomics

Ebay's (EBAY) most important business is the core auctions business. They are seemingly the only one and as such have major control over pricing. Ebay was losing its core business to its own stores/Amazon's personal stores and other such merchants online. This was due to Ebay increasing prices too much. This drove down listings. When Ebay earlier this year reshuffled their pricing schemes it seems to regulate the business back and hence led to an increase in listings. So that's one way, a second is advertising. Ebay does a lot of it, but to further increase listings they need to do more. Ebay ran a pretty successful I think "It" campaign through TV and print ads but I havn't seen anything like that in quite a while from the company. Third, Ebay needs to further expand into more worldwide markets. They've made some strides in Europe but there's still a lot of room for growth there. The East markets are tougher for American companies to crack since they have traditionally had a hard time understanding the consumer and cooperating with regulations.

As for Ebay's macroeconomic issues, it like all technology stocks is susceptible to factors like inflation, interest rates, employment, consumer confidence etc. Interest rates, while not seemingly a factor in terms of core business for Ebay do have a big effect on general market trends. When the Fed cut rates earlier the market rallied in relief that the sub prime crisis could be further averted. Had rates not been cut Ebay would've tanked hard with the rest of the market. The employment issue is also a broad market issue, but Ebay feels the effects. Sellers of merchandise on Ebay will have a hard time getting rid of their things if the people who were just buying have suddenly lost jobs. The same goes for consumer confidence. People will only feel free to use their loose cash if they feel their economic situation warrants it. Hence they need to feel confident that they have enough to get by regardless of some casual spending.

The biggest issue for Ebay and other highly valued technology companies is that macroeconomic factors have a direct correlation to P/E ratios. When the economy is strong and macro-economic data points to growth and continued strength the leaders in the markets enjoy P/E premiums, so a company like Ebay can be valued fairly at 40-50 times trailing earnings. When these macro-economic indicators start to shift negatively and fears of a recession in the economy loom its very easy for those P/E premiums to contract sharply, and even though Ebay's growth could be consistent the company would trade at 25-30 times earnings rather than 40-50 times.

5) Altria and the Philip Morris International spin-off, what to do now?

I've liked Altria (MO) in the past and its done well. I liked it going into the run up to the Kraft split and now also before the PMI announcement was finalized.
I think PMI is much better to own as a pure smoking play that actually has some growth.
Smoking in North America is all but dead in the growth department. That's the main reason why I'd be hesitant with Altria. I do think owning it is a good idea for the PMI spin. I think people will jump into that when it becomes fully PMI. Only way to do that initially will be to own MO. I can see MO coming into the $75-77 range at the end of the year from its current $69 range.

6) Fund Holding Performance through the last quarter?

I'm working on something that should be up very soon.
I intend to publish the fund's largest holding, gainers, losers and trades that were closed during the September quarter.

Bullish Sentiment Suppressed by more Credit Fears

The markets suffered another heavy bearish day as the late morning's positivity was pulled down by more woes from the credit sector. Merrill Lynch issued a report which uttered the infamous "bankruptcy" warning for investors of Countrywide Financial (CFC). Countrywide shares plummeted on the news and the persistent fears of more backlash swept through the market.

The Dow's almost 100 point gain in the early going was wiped out by the end of the day as Funds and investors pulled out further in attempts to raise their own cash levels. The sell off was across the board and with seemingly no near term end in sight to this panic-driven spree, spooked investors are heading to the door in droves. One bright spot again was the new IPO VMware (VMW) as it rose again in its second day trading to almost reach a high of $60 before falling back and settling with a 10% gain.

Is the Hype behind the VMware IPO Worth the Investment?

VMware (VMW) is a software service unit that creates various virtualization solutions for a multitude of consumers. EMC Corporation (EMC) is behind VMware and is spinning about 10% of the company in the IPO that is due to open trading August 14th. EMC acquired VMware in 2004 for around $600Million and if the hype machine behind the IPO translates into interested investors, the company will surely reap the benefits. The biggest sell of virtualization software is the ability to run multiple operating systems on the same physical machine at the same time. With the amount of money that is spent on server infrastructure within American corporations this, some argue, is the future of computing. Less physical boxes running simultaneous split operating systems will save incredible amounts of money, use less resources and provide increased flexibility as the world of multi-core computing becomes reality.

VMware also creates smaller scale solutions for consumers, such as its popular desktop virtualization tools that allow Apple (AAPL) Mac users the ability to simultaneously run Windows on their Intel-based iMacs or MacBooks. Apple's own solution called Boot Camp provides a similar functionality however the user is forced to reboot the machine in order to switch between Windows and Mac OS X.

This growing business isn't anything close to small peanuts as VMware did $700Million in Revenue last year and had $87Million in profit. Last quarter the growth continued as VMware reported $300 Million in revenue, representing an 89% increase year-over-year. EMC plans to issue 33 Million shares of the around 375 Million in VMware. That's right EMC is keeping almost 90% of the company out of public hands. VMware has certainly been popular among the huge market tech names as both Cisco (CSCO) and Intel (INTC) have stepped up and purchased small pieces of the firm.

Can VMware make the average investor money on IPO day? It's possible but I would be extremely cautious of over-paying for a tiny piece of this solid, growth company. Investors started to realize that EMC would actually be the safer way to get in on the VMware craze and shares of EMC jumped 8% today to $19/share, giving the company a market cap of $40Billion and a P/E ratio of 31. A company that showed growth of 20% last quarter and posts an estimated growth rate of 19% from this year to next is certainly attractive at P/E levels in the low 30s.

The hype behind VMware is icing on the cake for EMC investors, and this should be the safer, smarter play for those who won't get in on the ground floor when VMware's IPO price is announced. Ranges for the IPO have increased from the mid 20s to the high 20s with some analysts expecting over $30/share. There's also been talk that the company could open as high as $60/share. At $60 that would give VMware an implied market cap of $22Billion. Half the market cap of its owner EMC. That would be extremely high for a company that looks at estimates of $1-2Billion in revenue this year. In contrast, EMC had over $11Billion in revenues last year and sports of growth rate of almost 20%.

Virtually the entire market expects a red hot VMware IPO, no pun intended. Plenty of money will change hands and opportunities will be there, however, a word of caution for investors because if reasonable prices can't be found in the early going I would not recommend the chase. With EMC still owning 90% of VMware anyway, that should be the way to play this one.

Disclosure: Author is long AAPL, INTC and holds no positions in the other stocks mentioned