Showing posts with label Jobs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jobs. Show all posts

05 April, 2010

Loaded post-Holiday Monday for Media and Markets.

Traders are back in their seats Monday with an upbeat jobs report behind them and Treasuries pushing the magical 4% yield number. All this on a day where the Duke Blue Devils face off against the Butler Bulldogs for College Basketball's biggest prize, Tiger Woods has his first real press conference as Master's week begins and the Baseball Season begins with with the fiercest rivalry in the MLB, last night's opener of Yankees-Red Sox.

Gains in payrolls for the month of March of 162,000 signaled the biggest job increase in multiple years and certainly the most optimistic look for an economy devastated by millions of job losses in the 2 years. Yes, the Government sponsored Census had a part to play, as by some reports, the number of temporary workers hired has been reported near 48,000, but the underlying trend is much improved. The numbers from January and February were revised much higher also, with January turning a 26,000 job loss into a 14,000 job gain and February reducing its loss to only 14,000 from a previous estimate of 36,000.

On this positive data US Treasury yields for the 10-year flirted with the 4% mark. The first time in 10 months that this has happened. Another area creating highs was Energy, as Crude Oil prices pushed to 18-month highs of $86 a barrel.

Investors have a lot to look forward to today not market related, as sports and news take center stage. Opening day of the baseball season is sure to grab some attention away from Bloomberg terminals this afternoon as is Tiger's first full press conference since announcing he returns to play in the Masters. His first Golf Tournament since the infamous car accident and continued fall-out from his grandiose sex scandal. All the while, sports fans across the United States prepare for this year's College Basketball National Championship game tonight between the Blue Devils of Duke and the Bulldogs of Butler in Indianapolis, IN.

12 November, 2009

Job Market healing, albeit very slowly

Employment in this economic environment has been a very sensitive subject for both politicians, investors and most importantly job-seekers. The economic issue is first and foremost on the mind on many Americans, but it is also causing political upheaval in Washington as the slowing of job losses can be used as an argument only so many times before political capital and goodwill is eroded completely.

Jobless claims data out today showcased that first-time claims came in at just over 500,000, which is the fewest since January of this year. The four-week average for first time claims, about 520,000, is off 20% from peak claims levels. For October, job losses numbered in the 190,000 range, well off peaks of 700,000 during this recession. Accumulation is a big issue, as jobs lost since the recession began number more than 7.3Million, and despite government figures that point to job creation/savings of about 600,000 from the stimulus package it still is a difficult data point to swallow, for those trapped without employment, making the march for continuing jobless benefits.

The market's have reacted bearishly to the jobless claims, but overall losses today have been muted, with the major market trackers off about half a percentage point. Materials and Energy sectors are leading the decline today, with Financials barely trailing for the prize of day's worst performers. With the S&P holding levels around 1100 points, the market has been pricing in recovery during its recently extended rally. Investors, to keep this rally going, are going to need to see tangible upticks in demand and that means some tried and true job growth going into 2010. If anyone is to keep this market going next year the need will be to have jobs creation to build on the economic recovery GDP figures have already suggested is here.

24 September, 2009

Drop In Jobless Claims Fails To Ignite Market

In what by most is seen as good news the job market showcased another data point in its long march towards stability. Jobless claims fell by about 20,000 to 530,000, which was slightly better than the 550,000 expected by economists and analysts.

Another rather important metric, continuous jobless claims (people making claims for longer than a week) fell by 123,000 to 6.14Million. These data points are giving economists positive signals that the job market is getting better, but cautious optimism aside, it also shows how much further there is to go.

The major benchmarks in the US opened slightly positive on the news but have since turned negative with the Nasdaq leading with a 1% decline.

In other news, some technology companies might to ready to appear more attractive to investors as what some call the "Apple rule" has been reversed. The required method of subscription accounting when dealing with hardware and software sales, most notably put into practice by Apple (AAPL) with its iPhone, will no longer be so as part of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. This change allows Apple to record Revenue and Profit from iPhone sales in real-time as opposed to being force to account for each unit sold over a 2 year period. Amazon (AMZN) uses the same method of accounting for its Kindle e-book reading device and Palm (PALM) had adopted the method for its flagship Pre smartphone.

Why Apple is most noted for this change is relatively simple, it moves a staggering amount of iPhone units, at high margins, fueling renewed growth rates. Under the new standards, Apple is expected to report profitability that is 35-40% higher than it is currently allowed to. Fundamentally, there should be no change to the value of the company, simply a change in the accounting books, but for many P/E based traders and quantitative computer P/E based models, Apple will appear more attractive under these ratios. Amazon, Palm and other companies dealing with this change will not have their metrics altered nearly as much as Apple is expected to.

Disclosure: Author owns AAPL

08 September, 2009

As more go back to school, less are out of work

The Labour Day weekend in North America was met with a Friday stock rally based on encouraging employment figures that saw 216,000 jobs lost in the month of August. Although 216,000 is still a significant number out of work this trend of a decline in job slashing, a figure that was upwards of 700,000/month at the peak of the recession, led investors into confident buying to start the long weekend. Furthermore, Canada's job picture actually showed job growth in the tens of thousands signalling a shift out of the recession and leading the TSX Composite Index to new highs for the year.

Tuesday's morning action continued the trend, as market's saw green in the early going, this time fueled by commodities, especially gold, with prices around $1000/ounce. Major market benchmarks were all higher between .5 and 1% with the S&P leading the way.

America's battle for Health Care is taking a more dramatic turn this week as President Barack Obama issued a strong pro health care reform speech to the labor force and is set to speak again to Congress on Wednesday as the health debate enters its final stretches.

Kraft Foods (KFT) is taking a bit of a beating today as it issued, and was quickly rejected in a $16Billion bid for Cadbury (CBY). It's clear investors want more out of a takeover bid, with analysts already speculating the Chocolate maker could fetch near $21Billion if another suitor was found to compete. Shares of CBY are up nearly 40% giving a market cap well over $17Billion, so it seems traders are sharing the investor sentiment for now. Shares of Kraft slid 5% on the news.

Also on tap tomorrow is an annual iPod-related event from Apple (AAPL) as it brings the media over to showcase new iPods and possibly a new version of its iTunes software. Rumors have been rampant as usual for an Apple event, and although the fabled tablet computer is unlikely to appear, new iPod Touch and iPod Nanos are expected to the sporting cameras for easy on the go pictures and videos. Shares of Apple are up almost 1.5% today but are expected to fall following the event unless Apple can surprise with a new announcement of some kind.

Disclosure: Author owns AAPL

06 February, 2009

Markets Rally on Stimulus Package Hopes

200 to the good for the Dow in mid day trading has equities on a continued Bull run as regularly rough unemployment metrics are being used by traders to cash in, in the hopes the dire data will bring the US government around to passing, and passing quickly a massive stimulus package aimed at helping America get off the economic doormat.

The United States, according to latest figures lost 598000 jobs in January, raising unemployment to 7.6%, the highest level in 16 years. Normally, this news would spur further doomsday economic chatter but with the proposed $800Billion plus stimulus bill on the table in American parliament the talk turns to anticipation that lawmakers will act swiftly on resolution.

All the majors in America (Nasdaq, Dow Jones and the S&P) were up around 2% at the time of writing.

05 September, 2008

Markets continue slide as Jobs data weighs

North American markets continued to sell off in the beginning of the end of a week that has seen Politics at the forefront of American minds and Employment at the forefront of Wall Street. Today's news, not surprising in the least, continued the slide. America's unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in August as payrolls were cut yet again by businesses.

That marks the 8th straight month of job losses and a 5 year high rate of unemployment in the United States. August's numbers, and those of the previous months paint a fading picture for American workers. Job losses in August are estimated at 84,000, compared to economist projections of 75,000. Adding fuel to the fire, estimates for June and July were revised up to 100,000 and 60,000 in losses.

While talk of a "deteriorating economy" is flying through economic and investing circles, the emphasis continues to be on the Federal Reserve to keep Interest Rates steady and low for longer than the organization would probably like.

Off, another 100 points before the lunch bell even sounds, the Dow has run up its losses in this shortened Labor Day weekend to about 700 points (about 6% in the red for the week). The other majors were hit even harder with the Nasdaq off almost 200 points (around 8%) and the S&P off 80 points (6%).

While the economy continues to fizzle into the holiday season, businesses will have to do more to lure customers, putting the squeeze on margins. So far the Bears have had their way, and with no clear signs of turnaround Bulls have to pick their spots carefully.

31 January, 2008

Fed Cuts Interest Rate by Another 50 Basis Points

Markets were in a lull Wednesday waiting on news of the Federal Reserve and its stance on Interest Rates. In the first meeting of 2008, and with a unscheduled 75 basis point cut in the bank rate earlier, the Fed responded to recession fears by slashing the Interest Rate by .5%.

Inflation indicators were muted leading up to this month's meeting so the Trader talk all circled around a 50 basis point cut. The market got what it expected and the results were volatile. Indices jumped as news came out with the Dow going from about 12450 to 12650 before coming back completely and ending in negative territory.

To start Thursday's session, jobless claims came in higher than expected setting off another sell-off with the Dow starting the way with a triple digit point loss.

05 October, 2007

Jobs Report puts Market in a Bullish Mood

The US Labor situation got a much needed boost last month as payrolls in September increased by 110,000. The Market feared dipping into a recession as the August report showed a decrease of 4000 jobs. This number was actually revised upwards to show a gain of 89,000 jobs. These macro-metrics put the markets in bullish territory early and the indices never looked back.

The Nasdaq led the way with a 1.7% gain and the Dow, S&P and Canadian TSX were all up between .7 and 1%. Canadian Technology power and BlackBerry maker Research In Motion (RIMM) led the way on the Canadian side as the company's strong earnings and guidance going forward lifted shares over 12%. The optimism surrounding the company and its popular line of electronics helped prop tech stocks for the entire trading session.

Investors go into the weekend on a high and as the Americans are back at it on Monday their Canadian counterparts get the day off to Celebrate the Thanksgiving Holiday.