$80 Oil and the Effect on the Marketplace, Time to Book Profits but Still Watch Energy Stocks

Price stabilization; the new key buzz word coming out of investment circles around oil futures. Consumers want it, oil companies probably not so much. Record breaking profits have become the norm at Exxon Mobil (XOM) but the average consumer will continue to feel the pinch at the pump.

OPEC, the world's oil production oversight organization, instilled an increase in production of 500,000 barrels per day in order to achieve some form of price stabilization. The fear of a sharp decline in oil stock piles has led to a continued surge in prices. Oil prices broke through a record barrier today and closed above $80.

Exxon, the largest of the "big-oil", rose another 1% to close at $88.62. Still $5 off its all time high, hinting that momentum and the market theory of "$80/share leads to $100/share" could be in full effect. Exxon stays shy of a half a trillion in market cap and with oil at these levels you have to wonder whether its just a matter of time before the company crosses that barrier. The one wild card is the Fed meeting on September 18th which could put a wrench into the spokes of this mini-recovery rally.

On the Canadian side of oil related news; Encana (TSE:ECA), Petro Canada (TSE:PCA) and Canadian Oil Sands Trust (TSE:COS.UN) are climbing back towards 52-week highs. Still a few dollars left to go for ECA and PCA but if supply fears continue to press on the market these companies will be breaking barriers left and right. They are the two prominent Gas and Oil companies the TSX has to offer. Canadian Natural Resources (TSE:CNQ) is eyeing its $78/share high after a 2.5% up day. CNQ has come far from its January lows of $53/share and as with, most of the Energy Sector in Canada it would be a great time to book some profits. For CNQ, the Alberta based oil and gas exploration play, I would like to see another pull back to the low 70s, high 60s before buying up more. This company has its headquarters in the sweet spot in Alberta's oil industry and has raised output guidance in its latest report. The anticipation of sustained greater output coupled with the rising commodity environment have spearheaded CNQ's run to its highs.

Buying into Oil at these levels I think is risky, as psychological record levels of $80 a barrel are broken. I would expect a slight pull-back in Oil prices from these levels as price stabilization comes into effect providing more workable supply numbers for the coming months. While some predict oil to reach $100 sooner rather than later, my stance would be that oil will sustain itself close to, but lower, than these records levels throughout the upcoming winter months.

Disclosure: Author is long CNQ

Market Musings: Oil Records, Interest Rate Uncertainty put Market on Edge

As North American Markets rallied today oil prices soared towards record highs on fears that OPEC would be unable to meet demand. Oil approached records of around $78/barrel as investors bought up these futures into the winter season, expecting diminished oil supply numbers from the US.

Before you run off to buy Exxon Mobil (XOM) or Chevron (CVX), it's important to note that these mega-oils already saw around 2% gains today and stand close to 52-week highs. OPEC, the world oil production policy maker announced that it would increase production by 500,000 barrels per day to help ease prices. The general fear of market uncertainty due to the US Credit situation is putting the world economy on notice and forcing policy making organizations to take steps to control pricing of various goods. The news of the production ramp sent oil futures back to the $77/barrel range.

The recent US jobs number came in drastically softer than expected as payrolls were actually cut. Analysts expected a drop in jobs but not a complete loss. This data however, carried forward the notion that the Fed must act on Interest Rates at its next meeting later in September.

I would be cautious up to this meeting because the market's resilient rally here is based on the fact that the Fed will in fact cut rates by .25 or .50%. This is a key decision for the Fed as it balances a seemingly US strong economy and a disaster situation with credit that threatens to spill over into all consumer segments. Investors need to be cautious through the next week and beyond as the markets seek to establish a direction while waiting for the Federal Reserve to make its policy announcement. With the market having priced in a 25 basis point rate cut (.25%) and now working to price in a cut of 50 basis points (.50%) investors need to understand the upcoming risks. If action by the Fed is limited it would spark a sell off that could see the Dow back into the high 12000s.

If the Fed provides further relief for the markets, come the September meeting, we could be off to the races for the annual Santa Rally starting as soon as October. Technology companies making those must-have items such as Apple's (AAPL) iPod & iPhone, Nintendo's (NTDOY) Wii and Sony's (SNE) PS3 stand the most to gain, as would Internet advertising giant Google (GOOG), and auction house pioneer Ebay (EBAY). High growth will be the name of the game for the end of the year provided the expected relief comes by way of Bernanke and the Federal Reserve.

Disclosure: Author is long APPL, GOOG and does not own any of the other companies mentioned.

Apple unveils Exciting but Expected iPod revamp, Stock suffers

The consumer electronics world held its collective breath today as Steve Jobs took the stage to show off Apple's (AAPL) new line of iPods for the holiday season. It's been almost 2 years since a total redesign of the flagship iPod, so most were expecting dramatic changes.

However, Jobs and Apple already changed the world this year! It was called the iPhone. A revolutionary device that ushered in a new era of interfacing, technology, entertainment and mobile communications. To think the company could pull another wonder out of its hat so soon was a stretch. But try they did and the results were astounding, but due to iPhone fever over the past 8 months, expected.

The focus on video and portable video is very apparent in the new line of iPods as the popular iPod Nano has become shorter, wider and sports a 2 inch screen capable of playing videos. The existing iPod received an interface refresh, was branded as iPod Classic and got a bump from 30GB & 80GB to 80GB & 160GB varieties. Perfect for that consumer going on vacation for a month with a load of music and video to hold on the go. The big announcement awaited the new flagship iPod and it came in the flavour of the now called iPod Touch, which incorporates many technologies seen first in the iPhone but without the mobile phone features.

The iPod Touch comes in 8GB & 16GB varieties and is built on the same Mac OS X platform that iPhone users are now familiar with. The most exciting part of iPod Touch is that it keeps the iPhone's wifi capabilities and packs the Safari Wed Browser. This allows iPod users the ability to connect to wifi networks and surf the Internet with their devices. Truly a remarkable thing, but in perspective analysts and investors have seen it before with the introduction of the iPhone 8 months prior.

Ringtones for the iPhone! Another eagerly anticipated feature that is now a reality. With the next version of iTunes, users will be able to use selected iTunes tracks and pay an additional $0.99 to chop up a 30 second portion into a ringtone for use with the iPhone. A great feature, all in all cheaper than other ringtones but nothing unexpected or truly groundbreaking here.

Now the news that's totally new. With the new iPod Touch comes the Wifi-based iTunes music store, which allows iPodders to buy music on the go through wireless networks. These tunes will sync up to their computers seamlessly when the iPod is reconnected to the computer at a future date. A deal with Starbucks was announced also, but seemed to confuse as to what "Free wifi" really means within Starbucks Coffee Houses. The assumption is that iPod & iPhone users (iTunes wifi is coming as an iPhone update soon) will be able to surf the iTunes music store for free, featuring specific Starbucks Music content, but would have to pay for other wireless surfing when sitting at a Starbucks.

Investors headed for the exits in excessive profit taking. Apple's fall from 52-week highs with the market led to a bottom in the 100s that begot a rise to $145 over the last weeks that was built on the hype that this event would bring more revolutionary products. Showcasing expected innovations did not appease the hype machine. Shares fell 5% to around 136 even as Apple announced a whopping 33% price cut for the 8GB iPhone (from $599 to $399). Perhaps investors saw this as a sign that demand was not as brisk as anticipated but I view it as Apple wanting to have a truly remarkable and record breaking Christmas shopping season as its lineup of media and communications devices fit neatly in market segments. With the iPhone price cut and the new iPod Touch model pricing of 8GB for $299 and 16GB for $399 the company has 2 flagship products that are sure to succeed over the holidays.

iPod sales broke 20Million units last holiday season and are expected to jump close to 25Million this holiday season. The injection of new iPods can only help the company reach these lofty expectations. The kicker still is the growth in video downloads as almost 100Million TV Shows have been downloaded to date. However only the flagship Video iPod had those capabilities while the most popular Nano models did not. This year that changes drastically and the full iPod line, with the expectation of the screen-less Shuffle, is now able to watch downloaded videos. Gonna be a rough season in that market for NBC if they can't make amends with Apple over iTunes contract negotiations.

While Apple still has some downside risk given the expected product announcements I believe its limited and only in the short term. The back to school computer season is reportedly very strong and the holidays appear to be ready to break records again as the company shifts its product line to video-centric Mac OS X based devices. The iPhone price cut is sure to spur sales and its only a matter of time until deals are crafted completely in Europe. Apple has so far this summer gone in line with general market trends and if fears resume from the credit crisis the stock will likely follow south. But for keen investors the opportunity is here again as Apple crafts new short term bottoms following this announcement. This opportunity is too good to pass up given company prospects going forward.

Disclosure: Author is long AAPL

GM Posts Surprise Sales Increase but the Better Auto Investment is in the Far East

Worries over consumer spending due to the shake up in the credit markets spilled over into the automotive segment as analyst estimates called for lower sales virtually across the board. The big US Automakers: Ford (F), DiamlerChrysler (DAI) and General Motors (GM) have been pressured by International producers Toyota (TM) and Honda (HMC) among others.

August numbers proved to be lower for most of the Automakers with only GM posting an increase that was seen higher due to rental car sales deals. GM posted a 6% sales increase but that included an unsustainable 24% increase in sales to rental companies. Ford posted a 14% decline while Toyota declined 3%. Chrysler, now separate from Daimler-Benz also suffered decreases. Can the auto industry provide decent returns in the long term? It's an industry that is now seen almost in the same light as the airlines and that's not a good look for the stocks of these companies. GM had its share of problems but recovered and Ford has its own share or problems and seen continued pressure as a lack of innovative vehicles are crossing the Detroit assembly lines.

Buyers are looking toward smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles due to the continued high price of gasoline and its Toyota, Honda and Nissan (NSANY) that benefit the most. In fact Honda and Nissan posted sales gains in the month. That's a promising sign as the overseas markers are capitalizing on not only American consumer trends but worldwide trends as well. The US automakers are struggling to find areas of growth and have shown that the innovative nature of American Car Design is all but dead. I personally can not remember the last American made vehicle that brought upon any kind of positive response except for the retro-styled Ford Mustang.

That's not to say that Toyota or Honda or Nissan make the prettiest cars either. The difference is though, that the luxury lines of these automakers are renowned for innovative breakthroughs and design promise. Honda's Acura line and Toyota's Lexus line are terrific positives for brand and design image and are one of the reasons that these auto makers deserve a slight market premium, in terms of a higher P/E ratio. Honda stands at 11, Toyota at 12 while GM sits at around 10 and Ford is trying to get back in the black after being plagued by losses.

To really turn the US automakers around a grass roots design reinvention has to take place and this is no easy task. The overseas players have the brand power (luxury lines), the incentives (cheaper more fuel economic cars), and the worldwide manufacturing to compete with and overtake their American counterparts. Toyota has some work to regain its highs close to $140/share but with its strategy well in place the sales growth should continue and barring an American miracle should emerge as the Car Maker of the world. Honda is a third the size of TM in terms of market cap and has room to grow its plant and model base.

The era of the great old American car maker is over for the time being as Japanese manufacturing strategy becomes more entrenched and the vehicles become more affordable and practical for the average consumer.

Markets Finish Higher on Bush and Bernanke Speeches while Apple's iTunes splits with NBC over Pricing

Optimism spread throughout the Financial Markets in North America Friday as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and US President George W. Bush presented speeches discussing the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

While not stating any certainties of an upcoming rate cut the Fed alluded to the fact that it will be ready to act if the economy becomes broadly hurt from the fallout of the credit-crunch. This was enough for investors to believe that a rate cut is more and more likely. The President conveyed a similar stance that it is not the job of the government to bail out over-extended investors, institutions and individuals. Bush did however outline a series of plans and proposals that will allow individuals to refinance some mortgages to avoid further potential loan defaults. Bush also presented proposals for slight changes to the tax code that would provide relief for people with heavy loan payments.

These were seen as positive steps by the markets as the major indices (Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, TSX) were all higher by about 1%.

In other market news Citigroup (C) is getting in on the bargain mortgage hunt as it is buying assets from ACC Captial Holdings (Parent of Ameriquest Mortgage Co.). This follows Bank of America's (BAC) recent $2Billion investment in Countrywide Financial (CFC).

In technology news Apple (AAPL) was in the news as hard-ball contract negotiations with NBC-Universal, a subsidiary of General-Electric (GE), fell apart. NBC noted that it will not renew its contract for shows in iTunes and let the current deal expire come December of this year. Apple took it one step further and stopped hosting new NBC TV Shows in iTunes before the television season starts later this September. The reasoning from Apple's press release was given as NBC demands for a 150% price increase per downloaded show. iTunes current rates are $1.99/show and NBC apparently wanted that to increase to $4.99/show, stricter piracy controls and the ability to change and bundle pricing. Apple stood its ground and talks faltered.

One of NBC's most popular shows Heroes had 23 episodes last season and at $5 a pop, a customer is expeced to shell out $115/season to be able to watch the shows on an iPod a day after it has aired on regular television. In the days of Tivo (TIVO) and the DVR the idea of drawing television audiences is about making it easier and cheaper, not more complicated and expensive. Season 1 of Heroes was just released on DVD for about $40. From a consumer perspective which party seems to have consumer interests more at heart?

There's been several editorials written about this issue including an open letter to NBC from iLounge.
Digg.com Comments (Link)
iLounge (Link)

Disclosure: Author is long AAPL, C, BAC