Job Market healing, albeit very slowly

Employment in this economic environment has been a very sensitive subject for both politicians, investors and most importantly job-seekers. The economic issue is first and foremost on the mind on many Americans, but it is also causing political upheaval in Washington as the slowing of job losses can be used as an argument only so many times before political capital and goodwill is eroded completely.

Jobless claims data out today showcased that first-time claims came in at just over 500,000, which is the fewest since January of this year. The four-week average for first time claims, about 520,000, is off 20% from peak claims levels. For October, job losses numbered in the 190,000 range, well off peaks of 700,000 during this recession. Accumulation is a big issue, as jobs lost since the recession began number more than 7.3Million, and despite government figures that point to job creation/savings of about 600,000 from the stimulus package it still is a difficult data point to swallow, for those trapped without employment, making the march for continuing jobless benefits.

The market's have reacted bearishly to the jobless claims, but overall losses today have been muted, with the major market trackers off about half a percentage point. Materials and Energy sectors are leading the decline today, with Financials barely trailing for the prize of day's worst performers. With the S&P holding levels around 1100 points, the market has been pricing in recovery during its recently extended rally. Investors, to keep this rally going, are going to need to see tangible upticks in demand and that means some tried and true job growth going into 2010. If anyone is to keep this market going next year the need will be to have jobs creation to build on the economic recovery GDP figures have already suggested is here.

End of July Market Musings & Microhoo deal

As another month comes to a close, the market's resistance proof rally continues on the strength of strong earnings and more signs of a waning recession. GDP numbers out for the previous quarter showed a decline of 1% in American GDP, this was better than the expected 1.5% decline, which showed economists that slowly but surely the United States is making its way out of the recession.

But the markets knew that in March right?! As the S%P continues to fly from March lows of near 650 to to cusp of 1000 yesterday. Just about a 50% rise for the broad market indicator. The real driver of this continuing rally is the strength in Corporate Earnings this quarterly season, which will be a difficult act to follow for the remainder of the summer as those results fade and current unemployment rears its head again. However, companies now have learned, adapted and retooled their operations and streamlined their businesses during the economic bottom (1st quarter of this year) and are now awaiting the increases in demand that are expected to come in the 2nd half of this calendar year.

On the deal front in recent news, was the Internet Search deal between Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo (YHOO). By combining search operations to Microsoft and sales operations to Yahoo the companies hope to put a dent into market leader Google (GOOG). However, the deal has widely been panned for Yahoo, with Investors sending shares down heavily in the few days after the deal was officially announced. The partnership is a revenue sharing one with no payments made upfront and is a far cry from the $40Billion buyout offer Microsoft initiated, nor is it even close to the $1Billion Microsoft most recently offered in cash along with Billions more in stock purchases.

The news media certainly has the right grasp, as the deal, which Yahoo had always held the upper hand on, has gone completely to Microsoft. Yahoo essentially gave away 20% Market Share in search, for cost savings and the chance to deal with all the sales hassles related to Search Advertising between both companies. Microsoft will now control about 28% of search queries through its new Search Engine but it still has a ways to go to get to the monetization levels Google has spent the last few years achieving. And that doesn't even begin to mention the complexities in integration relating to the now-coined "Microhoo" partnership. Executives at both companies expect this to take 2 years to get through fully. That's about half a lifetime on the Internet I'm afraid, so while Google will wave its hands and put pressure on both companies to drag out the legal battles, secretly they've got to be happy, as 2 years of distractions await their newest competitor, now with 8.5% market share, Bing!

Disclosure: Author owns GOOG

Federal Reserve on the Radar Screen again

Traders sent markets higher early Wednesday in anticipation of the latest Federal Reserve announcement. The majority thinking amongst The Street has been that the Fed will cut the key Interest Rate by another 25 basis points and signal a more assuring economic outlook.

While economic data currently released shows signs of consumer headwinds (latest GDP numbers in the US showed growth of only 0.6%), Investors are hoping for signs from the Fed that it will stop slashing rates after this based on a more certain future for the financial sector and economic credit situation.

Alas, could it be true, that the worst is over for the major financial firms? Well they've collectively written down more billions than Gates and Buffet, so I would certainly hope so. The sticking point is still the consumer in the US. The government has began its program of supplemental financial support (read: giving out cash to stimulate the economy), but will it be enough to stimulate already slowing spending, given the fact that a typical trip to the gas pump costs almost double what it did last year.

While traders seem to be positioning themselves on the Bullish side this morning, it is up to the real Market Makers to set sure this trend can and will continue.